DOWNING

ON POLITICS

THERE is a growing feeling around Leinster House that, one way or another, Enda Kenny, is in his final weeks. We will have a new Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach before the summer is very old.

But this coming weekend Mr Kenny is in Rome for EU celebrations to mark the trade bloc’s 60th birthday. If you look at things from the perspective of the aftermath of World War II, the EU has things to celebrate.

If you consider what’s coming down the tracks, you’ll agree that like many 60-year-olds, the EU faces a very uncertain future. Let’s hope there are not too many parallels to be drawn with another union, the Soviet Union, which broke up a decade after its own 60th birthday.

Poignantly, documents associated with this week’s Rome summit refer to the “EU 27,” a de facto acknowledgement that Britain is headed for the exit.

British Prime Minister, Theresa May, will not be in Rome along with Enda Kenny and the other heads of government. And a bit like Enda Kenny’s long-discussed departure, she cannot delay triggering EU-UK separation talks much further.

Along with Brexit, given two years of murderous terror attacks in France, Germany and Belgium, you can add “terrorism” to that urgent list. You can also add a growing tendency for protectionism, headed by US President Donald Trump.

Let’s not forget migratory pressures, since in the past two years over a million people have arrived, dividing EU leaders and prompting talk of an existential crisis. Then there is the ongoing threat to the euro-zone as Greece’s economy remains in crisis.

We in (at least nominally) “neutral Ireland” rarely think too much about the EU in terms of defence policy. But for many former East Bloc member states, this is the key issue, living as they do in the shadow of the ‘Russian bear’. The tensions over Ukraine and the Balkans have a direct impact there.

The shock of the Brexit vote on June 23 last, and the threat of the rise of far-right extremists across mainland Europe, sees the European Union trying to pull back and interfere less in national governments’ business.

A draft of the final weekend summit conclusions reflects this. It talks of the “Union to be big on big issues and small on small ones, in line with the principle of subsidiarity...” Veteran EU watchers will have heard all that before — but political developments may oblige Brussels to mean it this time.

Back on the home front, Seán Kelly, the Fine Gael MEP, suggests the party leadership change may happen in May. Mr Kenny’s deputy leader, Senator James Reilly, is less specific and sticks with officialdom’s love of the seasons by saying it will happen “in the summer”.

What will worry many impatient Fine Gael backbenchers is the varying definitions of summer: by some ratings it continues up to September 21.

But the would-be rebels will focus instead on Dr Reilly’s insistence that the Taoiseach will outline his exit plans in the next two weeks. That is the view also taken by Fine Gael party chairman, Martin Heydon.

Most of them will not believe it until they see it. For those of us who like our politics, the methodologies of change will fascinate.

It is hard to see it as anything other than a race between Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar. Each has been vaunting their farmer credentials, with Coveney off a large farm and a former Agriculture Minister, and Varadkar recalling halcyon days on his uncle’s farm near Dungarvan.