Marts sound optimistic note for new year’s trade

THE biggest question for cattlemen this week is whether 2018 will see a continuation of the very strong trade that typified the last quarter of 2017?

In the search for an answer, I asked the experts for their opinions.

First up was Sean Ryan of Sixmilebridge mart.

Sean rated 2017 as “one of the better years. It was a good year all through for the store man.”

As to the prospects for 2018 he reckons mart prices will stay strong for the first half of the year and after that it will be down to what markets the factories have.

In relation to the overall development of the national herd and its ability to continue servicing our many markets Sean said the lack of a clear policy in relation to the suckler sector is a huge problem.

Another problem is the evolution of the dairy herd. “The Holstein cross Jersey calf is a disaster,” he warned.

Jim Bush of New Ross mart also rated 2017 “a good year” but with a few provisos.

“The suckler herd is the back bone of both the factory and live trade and it’s being wiped out,” he says.

I remember his story that appeared on these pages back in November about the finisher who — when Jim asked why had he moved away from buying good Charolais cattle — replied simply “Because they’re not in it”.

Jim reckons that the first six months of 2018 will see no let up in the mart trade with the shortage of better confirmation cattle keeping a strong floor under the trade. “I believe men will find good stores hard bought come April” he concluded.

I asked Connell Nugent of Castleblayney mart whether he thought numbers of stores for the spring might be less than previously.

“Numbers are always tight in January and February but I believe there are a lot of cattle in sheds and come March and April they will appear.”

Brexit was a watch word during 2017 and with Castleblayney being so close to the border surely trade was affected. “We saw no Brexit effect. Trade with us went on well all year,” he said.

Ronan O’Connor of Ballinakill mart also rates 2017 as a good year but reminded me that one of the reasons that the grass men fared better was because factory prices were poor in the spring.

Summer grazers

“Those poor factory prices fed into the mart trade in the early part of the year and kept the trade steady. However as the year went on the summer grazers began to realise they had got to buy value early on as factory prices rose”.

What of the prospects for 2018? “With beef at over €4.00/ kg you can expect the mart trade to reflect that,” he said.

He also rated 2017 as a good year for the man with the cull cow.

“Her price stayed up more or less all year and lads got a good turn of them. Manufacturing beef, from reports I’ve read appears to be in short supply worldwide and if that is the case 2018 could yet be very good”.

These are just a few of the comments and analysis that I got over the last week or so, with the general consensus being cattle won’t get cheaper in the marts in the short to medium term.

The issue of what should be done to support the production coming from the suckler herd is one that perplexes many. Yet 2017 must surely rate as a good year for those who sold to the boat.

As for factory prices they will continue to be the foundation on which the majority of the trade builds its expectations. At present they are improved on pre-Christmas but appear to be plateauing as opposed to pushing on.

As for the issue of the Jersey Holstein calf, I believe you will see the factories move this year to recalibrate the QPS grid specifically to take account of just these types of animals.

This is a dairy issue which may yet cost cattlemen.