Change aspirations a reality
But if we treat the agriculture, forestry and land use sectors as a unit, then carbon sinks in the forestry and land-use sectors would offset some of this distance to target from agricultural emissions alone. The report suggests a sink potential of 3.50 Mt CO2e in 2030, although under current EU rules only an annual equivalent of 2.68 Mt CO2e can be credited as offsets.
The report also suggests a further 1.31 Mt CO2e from fossil fuel emissions could be displaced in 2030 by bioenergy from forest thinnings, biomass crops, biofuels and anaerobic digestion. In the GHG accounts, these savings are attributed to the energy sector rather than agriculture.
The Teagasc roadmap points out one way in which the sector could move towards its pro-rata target, taking into account uncertainty over how cow and cattle numbers might change up to 2030 compared to the baseline projections.
All of this depends on one crucial assumption, that farmers fully adopt the measures identified in the Teagasc MAC curve to reduce emissions. Many of the measures are cost-beneficial, meaning that they would save farmers money as well as reduce emissions. Yet we observe a slow uptake of these measures. Other measures, including afforestation, imply a net cost to farmers, up to €50 per tonne of abated CO2e. There may be some financial support for these measures in the new CAP measures post2020 under the Commission’s recent proposals.
However, relying only on subsidy to incentivise farmers to adopt these measures would be costly to the Exchequer. As GHG emissions are bad, nudges as well as carrots are needed to encourage the uptake of these measures.
This is why I favour the introduction of a lev y on GHG emissions, the proceeds of which would be recycled back to farming in the form of support for abatement measures. Using a market mechanism in this way not only incentivises farmers to reduce their carbon footprint. It also gives other actors, including in particular the dairy and meat processors, an incentive to invest in research and knowledge transfer activities to help their farmer suppliers to do this.
Without putting such incentives in place, the Teagasc MAC curve will remain aspirational, and agricultural emissions will continue to increase.
Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy at Trinity College Dublin.