Influence as a hard Brexit looms

accounts for the vast majority of our indigenous exports of goods.

So when Leo and Simon have the Brexit guns pointed at their heads at a minute to midnight on March 28 next year, these will be some of the thoughts running through their head.

Of course, turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, and they will also be hyper aware of the disproportionate political strength of the farming lobby. Outwardly, at least, they will be fighting for the best deal to protect Irish agriculture.

But even on that front, all is not as straight-forward as you might think.

The line up to now has very clearly been that Brexit is all bad for Irish agriculture, and the only question now is how bad it will actually be. This narrative is firmly driven by the dairy and beef lobbyists who, rightly, point to the massive reliance that both sectors have on British sales.

But spare a thought for some of the other sectors that might actually welcome a hard Brexit. A 16pc lev y on UK imports that have been undermining Irish prices in recent decades could have a transformative effect on the beleaguered tillage and horticultural sectors.

Potato imports

For example, an astounding 120,000 tonnes of chips are imported into Ireland annually — most of which come from the UK.

Our potato imports don’t stop there.

The production of seed potatoes has virtually ceased in Ireland, with the annual 25,000 tonne requirement almost all imported from Britain.

And as any spud or vegetable farmer will tell you, when there is any scarcity of product in the Irish market, supermarket buyers immediately turn up the dial on UK imports. This effectively keeps a lid on the earnings in the sector, and has contributed to the shrinkage in the overall fresh produce sector here.

The same applies in the grain sector. So a hard Brexit could be good for some farmers, and colour politicians’ views when it comes down to brass tacks.

And yes, I am a horticultural and grain grower. But I also have a (small) stake in a dairy farm. So no, I’m not campaigning for a hard Brexit, even if it does look more likely with every passing week.