Getting into bed with the Greens could cost Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil a lot of rural votes

It looks like we’re reaching the end game in the efforts to find a new Government. The political developments in recent weeks have underlined the unprecedented nature of the times we are living in.

Who would have thought that what is a truly historic agreement between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to enter into coalition talks would spark so little discussion?

Just a short few years ago, such a marriage would have seemed impossible. But with Covid-19 setting the agenda, the onus has shifted in recent weeks to just forming a stable government to deal with this national crisis.

However, the deal is not over the line yet and both parties find themselves between a rock and a hard place when it comes to finding a third party in government. Not to mention the task of bringing their own grassroots supporters along.

With Sinn Féin ruled out by both, the Green Party is clearly viewed as the obvious choice.

However, identifying the relative strength of their hand, the Greens look set to drive a hard bargain for their support and one which may have a huge impact on the future of Irish agriculture.

Or are they playing themselves out of the equation with their demands?

By demanding a doubling of emission cuts, the Greens are pushing for livestock farmers to significantly carry the can.

As we report this week, even the existing targets set out for emission cuts from agriculture look ambitious without a reduction in the national herd.

Unpopular

Such a move would likely be deeply unpopular among farmers, and should Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael give into it, or other Green policies unpopular in rural Ireland, it could have a significant impact on their traditional support base.

Indeed, a deal with the Greens could accelerate the growth of Sinn Féin in rural areas, where Fianna Fáil has found itself particularly vulnerable to voter movement.

Dealing with the Greens, rather than a group of individual independents, may be on many levels an easier option initially for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but it may have longerterm costs at voter level.