Farmers braced for hard times as factories play the numbers game

‘Factories,” a sheep man from the east of the country declared on Saturday evening, “are buying sheep and time.

“Numbers are tight, but that will change over the next few weeks.

“They are tinkering around with the price. They pulled it back two weeks ago and they’ll probably tinker with it a bit in the next two. They have to plan to cater for the end of Ramadan.”

The Muslim period of fasting ends on Saturday, May 23, an occasion marked by the Eid al-Fitr festival

“Right now they have probably just enough to keep their customers satisfied with Ramadan in mind so they can’t move as strongly as they might like,” the farmer continued.

“But they know the numbers will come, and when Ramadan is over they’ll balance their books”

Is this man right? Are factories tricking around with the price, trying to get sheep farmers tuned in to lower expectations?

The reference to ‘balancing their books’ implies that recent good prices paid by the processors were out of step with market returns.

This thought had me recalling a conversation I had a few weeks ago with a senior procurement officer; at the time quotes for hogget were at €6.00-6.20/kg, with springs around €6.60/kg.

He told me that his accounting department and sales teams had been on to

Kildare Chilling

Tue him, saying he’d better stop “spilling red ink”.

This week’s quotes are a mixed bag for sheep farmers.

For the third consecutive week, both Kepak Athleague and Dawn Ballyhaunis were unable to offer quotes.

And there’s bad news as the two ICM plants reduce their offering for spring lamb and cull ewes by 10c/ kg, to €5.90+10c/kg quality assurance and €2.40/kg, respectively.

Kildare Chilling, however, leave their quotes for springs and culls unchanged at €6.10+10c/kg QA and €2.70+10c/kg QA, although 270+10QA 530+10QA 530+10QA 540+10QA 590+10QA 590+10QA 610+10QA they do ease hoggets by 10c/ kg to €5.40+10c/kg QA.#

The ICM plants drop hoggets by 20c/kg.

Sean McNamara of the ICSA echoed the sentiments of the farmer I spoke to, saying: “When the numbers start to come factories will play with the numbers and prices.”

Bigger problem

But he also pointed to a potentially bigger long-term problem.

“If the store men come out in July and buy ewe lambs to fatten, where will we get extra breeding stock?”

Sean Dennehy of the IFA appeared to offer some good news on that front, however. Quoting from the 2019 National Sheep Census published by the Department of Agriculture, he said it was positive to see ewe numbers increasing.

“Ewe numbers increased by 11,000 or 0.4pc to 2.57 million breeding ewes over 12 months of age,” he said.

The Department figures go on to show overall sheep numbers were up 2pc (76,413) on December 31 to 3,809,368.

For those farmers dedicated to the business, perhaps a fall in numbers might have been more welcome.