Grain yields forecast to fall 22pc as combines start to roll

GRAIN yields are forecast to fall 22pc this harvest, with overall tonnage of cereals expected to drop by around 400,000t compared to 2019.

With combines expected to be rolling into fields over the coming week, Michael Hennessy of Teagasc said the total grain yield this harvest was likely to be around 1.8m tonnes. This is back from 2.2m tonnes last year and from 2.35m tonnes in 2017.

The reduced output will cost tillage farmers around €55-60m based on current grain prices of €135-145 per tonne.

Last month Teagasc warned of an “impending disaster”, with growers facing significant losses as a result of the drought.

Mr Hennessy estimates that 75pc of spring barley crops remained “moderate to very poor”, despite some areas having recovered somewhat following the recent rain.

Crops in Cork, south Wexford and

Donegal — areas which avoided the worst of the dry spell — are generally considered to be in very good condition.

However, the recent rain has caused some lodging and is likely to delay harvesting for “a strong fortnight”, as one Cork grower remarked.

In contrast, winter barley is ripening early in areas which were hardest hit by the drought, and the expectation is that some crops in Carlow-Athy could be fit for harvesting by the weekend.

Disease pressure on crops has also been on the increase in the wake of the last week’s heavy rain, Mr Hennessy explained, with more growers reporting difficulties with fusarium.

Wexford tillage farmer Art Murphy will start cutting a small area of sixrow Pixel winter barley this week, and hopes to be harvesting Casia in around 10 days’ time. He said spring crops are likely to be ready for harvest by the end of this month.

Mr Murphy grows winter barley and oats, along with spring wheat and barley. He said the crops were “looking good”, but said a “lot of work had gone into them”.

While he conceded that 2020 had been a “costly year on crops”, he said growers in Wexford were luckier than many since they hadn’t endured the worst of the drought.

Meanwhile, the early indications are that cereal growers are being offered €18-20 per 4x4 bale for barley straw from the field.

Straw output this harvest is expected to be halved due to the drought, with supplies dropping from six million 4x4 bales to around three million bales.

The reduced output will cost tillage farmers around €55-60m based on current grain prices of €135-145 per tonne