Focus on human cost, not the ‘fiscal stance’

PUBLISHING the mid-year review, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe yesterday said it was crucial to focus on the totality of expenditure and not just “incremental changes”. But incremental changes matter, especially when they are of the order of €178m, as is the case with the water charge refund.

And given that about €60bn will be spent by the Government over the next year, it is indeed vital that we keep a keen eye on the bottom line. It is not just about balancing books, but making sure that the lives of people are also taken into account.

What the Government says it will spend, and what it actually shells out, matters because it hits taxpayers in the pocket and it impacts vital services. When Taoiseach Leo Varadkar promised to give a €178m water refund, he might have been wise to first ascertain precisely where the money was going to come from. According to Mr Donohoe, “underspends” by all departments will add up to about €300m. It appears that the water refund is to come out of this. This could ultimately mean fewer schools, hospital beds, or other essential services, as the national sport of kicking things into the distance grows in popularity.

But what is the point of drawing up spending plans unless they are honoured. As Warren Buffett said: “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”

But when in trouble mumble, as the saying goes. And this is where Mr Donohoe will have lost many in a fog of words: “We must also focus on the fiscal stance and not just the fiscal space.” In the real world, the “space” is getting more constricting, especially as the national debt recently passed the €200bn mark. And yet we still have €178m for the creation of a political feel-good moment.

On the same day as these figures were being juggled, the Irish Hospital Consultants’ Association revealed that some patients have been waiting up to nine years to see a consultant. The organisation’s president, Dr Tom Ryan, went so far as to claim that our hospital lists are out of control with 600,000 people waiting for treatment. There is always a cost for profligacy, but the human cost is inevitably outside of the margin.