Glimmer of Brexit hope for Ireland
ARE you bored and bewildered by Brexit? If the answer is yes, you are not alone. Such is the volume of news generated by our neighbour’s departure from the EU that even those of us who are paid to follow it sometimes lose the will to live. Or feel snowed-under – in the Brexit news blizzard, it can be difficult to see the wood for the trees. But it still matters a lot.
Whenever this column has discussed Brexit over the past number of years, the perspective has always been gloomy. That is because Britain moving away from Europe is a strategic nightmare for this island – being dragged in two different directions as Britain drifts away from the continent will have large negative consequences, for the Republic and for the North. The only question is how large.
In the Republic, that is a widely held view. In Britain, a commonly held view is that the country’s politics has gone to hell in a hand basket and that nobody is at the helm. Not one of a succession of London insiders who has been to the think-tank where I work in recent months has been anything other than despairing about what is going on in Westminster.
On the continent, the position towards Britain is hardening, as the meeting of EU leaders in Brussels today and tomorrow will confirm.
As discussed below, this is not because there is a desire to punish the British for leaving, but because many countries resent having to devote so much time to something that is of little relevance to them (unlike Ireland, the economic ties most EU member countries have with the UK are not significant for their prosperity).
As is often the case in divorces, money is among the most contentious issues. Britain’s departure will leave a hole in Brussels’ budget. Despite the sums involved being tiny relative to all countries’ economies, many of the remaining 27 members are not prepared to pay a financial price for Britain’s decision to leave – either by paying more into the budget, or by having what they currently receive cut. British Prime Minister Theresa May is being pushed up against that immovable object by the irresistible force of those Brexiteers who do not want a single penny more to be paid to Brussels. She faces a backbench revolt and media accusations of selling out if she offers a penny more.
The money matter is a long way from being resolved, and it may not be resolved around the table in Brussels.
This has led to increased concerns that the Brexit talks will break down and that Britain will end up walking out the door without any agreement on anything.
That would involve, in a mere 17 months’ time, and possibly sooner, customs checks starting on the Irish Border, ports being clogged up and planes not flying. Such a shock would halt growth in the Irish economy and very probably tip into recession.
Given all of the above, there is now more gloom than ever about Brexit. While that is understandable, let me take a slightly more upbeat view.
The most important Brexit development in recent months has it been the agreement reached by the British cabinet to accept a de facto postponement of Brexit. Through all the noise of events, this important signal may not have been received as clearly as it might have been.
In a landmark speech last month, Mrs May said her government would accept all EU rules (and payments) for an additional two years after the UK leaves in March 2019. The main reason for that is because those in her government who believed Brexit would be easy and good for the British economy have had their enthusiasm tempered by their experiences since the vote.
They no longer take to the airwaves claiming that economic interests on the continent – from German carmakers to Italian prosecco producers – will force their own governments to give Britain frictionless trade with the single market. They no longer talk about how easy it will be to negotiate new trade deals with the likes of India. They no longer claim that Trump’s America will put aside that country’s usual hardball tactics when it comes to economic diplomacy so that a transatlantic free-trading Anglosphere can be created.
That reality is biting Brexiteers is good for Ireland as it has likely
They no longer talk about how easy it will be to negotiate deals
pushed out the departure date. If a complete breakdown in talks can be avoided, that will give Irish businesses more time to prepare and more time to diversify into other markets.
Another development that is good for Ireland is how the rest of the EU feels about Britain. After the Brexit referendum in June of last year, there was no little anger across the continent, for a variety of reasons, about the British decision and its consequences. One reaction, though by no means the dominant reaction, was that Britain needed to be seen to suffer as a result. That reaction was motivated largely by the fear the Brexit referendum could lead to an increase in support in other countries for exit, and for parties who support exit.
Things have turned out differently. According to the latest Eurobarometer poll, Europeans have become more positive about the EU and all its works over the past year. Because of this, and because populist parties offering in-out referendums in elections earlier in the year in the Netherlands and France were not seen to benefit as a result, the fear that Europe is heading towards disintegration has largely evaporated.
Having more countries lose interest in Brexit gives those countries who have a vital interest in it more scope to influence the collective agenda. We are a long way from being out of the Brexit woods, but that provides a glimmer of hope.