London is betwixt Johnson and Corbyn on Brexit talks

IT really is not anything to glory in, but in a most unlikely scenario the 27 remaining EU member states are more united than the British government about Brexit.

In London, and across the other EU capitals, everyone is agreed that this is the biggest issue to face mainland Europe since the aftermath of World War II.

Today, the other 27 EU leaders – including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar – will again discuss Brexit without the British Prime Minister Theresa May whose input was confined to yesterday’s session.

The recurring empty British chair at these Brexit summit talks in Brussels today tells us much.

The truly beleaguered British Prime Minister, propped up by the Democratic Unionist Party, may or may not survive in office to see this EUUK divorce process to its deadline of March 29, 2019.

In London, observers say most points in favour of her surviving turn on the lack of a credible alternative, and some kind of political inertia in a government which is now so diffuse on Brexit that they cannot present even a semblance of unity in Brussels.

British Foreign Minister, Boris Johnson, insists he is loyal to his party leader. But he doth protest too much and his gaffes and howlers have done much to undermine her and London’s standing across the EU.

If Mrs May were ousted as Conservative Party leader, we could very well see another general election hot on the heels of Mrs May’s disastrous electoral foray of June 8. Labour’s hitherto much undervalued Jeremy Corbyn might build on his surprising gains last time out.

The equally Europhobic Mr Corbyn, who had long dubbed the EU as a capitalist plot, might even come across on his more recent noises about a less “cliff edge” UK departure from the European Union.

Dublin’s hopes that the UK might stay within the EU customs union, making some lookalike trade terms with the EU, might become a reality.

We might not have to face horrors of disruption to longstanding trade between these two islands and minimise the revival of a Border on this island. On such slender hopes do Ireland’s fortunes, for the moment at least, now turn.

Again, it is absolutely nothing to crow about but Ireland is better fixed than Britain in this Brexit process. Dublin knows what it needs to achieve, even if it has no idea whether such things are achievable. London has yet to articulate a clear set of aims, and it is hard to achieve negotiating success if you do not know what you want.

There appeared to be some empathy for Theresa May in Brussels yesterday as she urged fellow EU leaders to set out plans to advance Brexit talks. We still expect this summit to decide that there is insufficient progress on divorce talks to open negotiations on a future trade deal until December at earliest. This is of huge interest to Ireland.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there were positive indications despite the ongoing deadlock over Britain’s exit bill and other

issues. Mrs May urged the EU to start preparations to discuss trade and a transition deal at the next leaders’ summit in December. She suggested her government would be “setting out ambitious plans for the weeks ahead”.

The British Prime Minister did offer something tangible

in an open letter to the three million EU citizens living in the UK, which promised they would not be asked to leave after Brexit in March 2019. She said a deal to secure their rights was “within touching distance”.

Such positive signs are welcome – but let’s hope they are not straws in the wind.