It’s hard to be optimistic as UK’s 'horror show’ goes on

AHEAD of yesterday’s crunch EU summit in Brussels, EU leaders were confident that the new December deadline for “sufficient progress” on Brexit talks would be met.

However, on the face of it, it’s hard to see why this newfound optimism has emerged.

In off-the-record briefings in Brussels, Irish and British officials were unable to point to any progress on potential solutions to keeping the island of Ireland Border-free. It is hard to see where the deadlock on talks can be broken.

The draft conclusions of this week’s summit point to the “major challenge” that the UK’s withdrawal represents to Ireland, and say the EU is “expecting the UK to present and commit to flexible and imaginative solutions” called for by the “unique situation of Ireland”, specifically in relation to the avoidance of a hard Border.

The Irish government has been clear in saying the only solution to this fundamental problem is for the UK to remain in the tariff-free customs union. If it remains a member, a hard-Border would not be necessary as there would be no need to monitor goods travelling between the jurisdictions.

Easy? Except being a member of a customs union means a country is not allowed to negotiate its own trade deals with third parties, which won’t satisfy the demands of Brexiteers.

In addition, the lack of unity within Theresa May’s

cabinet has been the source of much of the dysfunction when it comes to the UK’s approach to Brexit. A senior member of the Irish government said it was a “horror show, really”.

Irish civil servants have spoken anonymously to the Irish Independent complaining of a “political paralysis” where British ministers aren’t issuing orders to civil servants. There is a “potential meltdown” on the way, unless something changes.

What has to happen to fix this mess?

Many countries, including Australia and some in South America, are prioritising trade deals with the EU, ahead of the UK. The OECD has predicted a steep slowdown of growth for the UK economy from 1.6pc to 1pc next year. The hope is that all of these factors will give the UK a “reality check” and it might decide to stay under EU-negotiated trade deals.

When it’s no longer able to trade tariff-free with the world’s largest free-trade zone, perhaps the UK might be persuaded to act in its best interests as well as everyone else’s.

Although, judging by the last two years, it’s hard to be that optimistic.