Britain wants to have its cake and eat it – and that might be no bad thing for us
THE Brexit talks are now set to make it to phase two in December, despite a report-card grade of “insufficient” progress and even louder talk of the UK “crashing out” of the EU.
But there are still questions over EU citizens’ rights, the UK’s financial settlement, and the Irish Border. What’s going to change between now and December to satisfy EU leaders on these key issues?
On Northern Ireland, the UK hasn’t yet put forward any solutions to avoid resurrecting hard Borders of the past, but UK Prime Minister Theresa May insists it “won’t allow it happen”. Mrs May has also said she wants the UK to have the “closest possible relationship” with the EU after Brexit, even though her government says it is exiting the single market and the customs union. But the UK has moved considerably since the triumphalist days at the start of talks when Mrs May and Brexit Secretary David Davis tried to make bargaining chips out of EU citizens’ rights and the life-saving matter of security.
Not to mention Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson saying the EU could “whistle” for the money it is owed from Britain’s budgetary and other commitments.
Recall the official photograph on the first formal day of negotiations in July, showing a grinning Mr Davis alongside two senior British diplomats without a shred of paperwork in front
of them. In the EU side was Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, with his team carrying substantial files and notes.
Since then, Mrs May has confirmed that Britain will “honour our commitments during our membership” on the financial settlement and has moved to allay the fears of EU citizens, although more work is needed there.
On the question of the Border, no solutions, technical or otherwise, have been forthcoming because the hope is that the UK will remain within the customs union until at least 2021.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said: “We’re not designing a Border – whether flexible or imaginative.”
He argues that what is required is a political solution that allows us to retain the trading relationship as we have now.
During a two-year transitional period after 2019, the British government can discuss trade deals elsewhere, but won’t be in a position to sign any. In the meantime, the EU will be continuing work on trade deals with Australia, New Zealand and South American countries.
The theory is that the UK government decides to stay in the customs union after it realises this is in its national interest to do so.
For the Irish economy, a strong UK economy is paramount. “If England sneezes, Ireland catches a flu,” said one government source.
One major obstacle lies with a growing number of EU countries that want the UK to suffer as a result of Brexit so no others are tempted to follow suit.
“If people don’t see the negative consequences of Brexit, that’s a problem for the EU,” the source added.
So why should it have its cake and eat it?
We’re the ones that will be worse off, if talks don’t stay on track.