World Cup bid team hope for early lead in race for prize
Today’s expert recommendations will go long way to deciding Ireland’s fate in 2023 contest
TRICK, or treat? A nervy Irish World Cup 2023 bid team will find out later today if Halloween heralds the promise of goodies to come when the big prize is dished out on November 15 – or else unfurls a nightmare should their bid falter at the penultimate hurdle as the expert independent assessments of the respective bids from South Africa, Ireland and Italy are handed over to the blazers.
The promise is that everything will be above board, unlike on previous occasions when intense lobbying and horse-trading of votes – including, it is alleged, by the IRFU themselves – damaged the credibility of the bid process.
But, please, this is not FIFA or its World Cup. Rugby – and its organising body, World Rugby – are above such shenanigans.
Which is why the rugby nabobs have recruited those global masters of open-laptop omnipotence – the “consultants” – to oversee the final stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup process.
Ireland, France and South Africa are the three countries remaining in the multi-million-euro high-stakes gamble for the right to host the jamboree that effectively bankrolls the global game.
So, no pressure then.
The Sports Consultancy firm – helpfully calling themselves ‘The Sports Consultancy’ – are the body entrusted by World Rugby to ensure they can be eventually trusted to deliver a transparent process before the decision to announce the winning bid is made on November 15. Today is a crucial stepping stone towards success.
GAINSAY
If a clear winner does emerge, then it is highly unlikely that the World Rugby Council blazers can conceivably gainsay the recommendations of the experts as that would utterly undermine the supposed integrity of the process. But a clear winner may not emerge at all.
Which means that the process will indeed return to darkened rooms and horse-trading corridors of power, precisely the scenario that World Rugby had hoped to avoid by employing the consultants in the first place.
First things first, though.
The RWC 2023 Bid Evaluation Report that will be released to host candidates, World Rugby Council and the media later today is an attempt to offset such politicking .
The evaluation has been carried out by a significant team of internal and external functional area experts, against weighted criteria that reflect World Rugby’s key objectives.
The host candidate which achieves the highest score will be
recommended by the Rugby World Cup Board as RWC 2023 host.
The Sports Consultancy has scrutinised every aspect of the evaluation to ensure all candidates have been treated fairly and that the agreed criteria have been consistently applied.
So what criteria will be assessed?
Agreed by both the Rugby World Cup Limited (RWCL) Board and Council, and then communicated to host candidates, they are based on World Rugby’s objectives and many of them appear quite woolly, with much corporate-speak of vision, enabling environment and diversity.
Ireland’s bid will not falter because
of their team’s laughable insistence that Killarney is but a two-hour jaunt from Dublin, nor the vague aspiration that hotels will not be allowed to f leece customers.
The key factor will be financial and it would not at all be a surprise to see the process kicked into the boardroom, with no clear winner
emerging today, although it is likely one country might drop out.
That could be France who, despite guaranteeing €160m, €40m more than the minimum bid required, are Olympic hosts in 2024; this may be the one factor that could derail them.
But from the criteria being examined, it is difficult to conceive how such notional problems may affect their bid, given their proven ability to host, as they did in 2007.
And given their thinly-concealed confidence in delivering better bang for their euro than anyone else, they may not lag as far behind the leading duo as many suspect.
Ireland and South Africa have led the running for more than a year now and, although the Irish have not committed as much money up front, the prospect of a World Cup held in Ireland appeals to many.
But that is purely an emotional, rather than a fact-based viewpoint, and the IRFU’s bid team – which has stumped up some €4m on the process – will have needed to appeal to not merely hearts and minds of World Rugby, but the bank accounts too.
France and South Africa have focused heavily on the fact that Japan 2019 will not be a money-spinner and they can thus fill the breach; Ireland have been less bullish about financial aspects.
EXPAND
They point to a 40-million diaspora in the US who can help expand rugby’s horizons but whether that can bring readily identifiable cash to the table is another thing.
Crucially, the council can choose to ignore the recommendation; then, the voting, with strict guidelines on lobbying, takes place and it should “take the Evaluation Commission’s recommendation into consideration”.
Argentina, Australia, England, Italy, New Zealand, Scotland and Wales carry three votes apiece. Japan, Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, North America and South America have two each.
The four other unions, from Canada, Georgia, Romania and the United States, have one vote apiece.
Each union with multiple votes can choose to split up their allocation, meaning that Australia, England or New Zealand could feasibly give one vote to each of the three bids. Equally, they can also abstain, choosing not to vote. Neither scenario is likely.
Votes are kept confidential and if one team reaches a majority of 20 votes in the first round, then they will be crowned hosts.
If there is no majority, then the candidates with the fewest votes will be eliminated, leaving it as a twohorse race in round two.
In the event of a stalemate, World Rugby’s chairman Bill Beaumont will decide the 2023 hosts.
Today could provide a winning conversion for someone.
Or a kick to touch.
IRELAND’S hopes of securing a potentially mammoth €1.5bn economic boost could receive a shot in the arm today when they discover if their 2023 World Cup bid has been formally endorsed.
World Rugby will announce today the results of a series of detailed assessments by an independent sports consultancy and if Ireland are substantially favoured by the outcome, it is more than likely that a subsequent November 15 vote will go their way.
South Africa and France are Ireland’s two rivals and, although the race could be narrowed down to two, it may be so close to call that no clear winner emerges from today’s presentation.
The IRFU have spent €4m on their comprehensive bid and have called on the services of a variety of personalities from Bob Geldof and Liam Neeson to former Ireland captain Brian O’Driscoll.
However, money will be the decisive factor and heavyweights South Africa and France have flexed their financial muscles throughout the process, despite the fact that both countries have already hosted the event over the last 22 years.
Ireland are banking on the novelty factor, and a potential reach to 70 million ex-pats based in the US and Canada, as well as tapping new sponsorship markets there.
They have engaged the GAA to help their bid as they do not have enough stadia of their own capable of hosting the tournament and Croke Park would be used as a potential semi-final and final venue.
If there is a clear winner emerging today, the vote is expected to be a formality later this month.
Ireland’s bid has received strong government support, unlike in France and South Africa.
However, unlike their rivals, they have offered just the minimum bid guarantee of €120m, with France (€150m) and South Africa (€160m) confident that money will talk loudest.