Return of direct rule not just toxic for the North, it would be a disaster for us too
‘WE ARE only as blind as we want to be”–Maya Angelou. Soothsayers who tremble in fear of what’s to come post-Brexit in 2019 can put away their crystal balls. Brexit has already arrived.
We need look no further than the depressing spectacle of the talks designed to facilitate the restoration of the powersharing institutions in Northern Ireland. This is an example of the uncertainty and instability that Brexit is inflicting right now.
Still in its infancy, the implications of the UK’s decision to exit the EU has swiftly introduced the spectre of direct rule by the British government in Northern Ireland. This development could prove utterly toxic to the entire political system in Northern Ireland, stoking untold problems that would undoubtedly reintroduce prejudices of old.
Politically speaking, if London becomes responsible for Northern Ireland’s administration, the development will favour absolutely no one. It furthers no cause. Moreover, it will hamper Northern Ireland’s capacity as a region to adequately plan for the even more onerous implications and the external threats once the practical realities of Brexit take hold.
In May 1998 Irish people voted to replace Articles 2 and 3 of our Constitution, removing a 62-yearold territorial claim to Northern Ireland and replaced it with a dramatic commitment to redefine Irish nationalism. We did so in the assumption that the people on these islands would always share another identity. That we would all be Europeans. In retrospect, our assumptions were misguided and false. Whilst much attention was placed on guarding against the rise of republicanism within the Irish State, we did not countenance the rise of nationalism in England.
This week, Leo Varadkar entered the fray to assert Irish interests. Advising people that should direct rule become a fait accompli (because Sinn Féin and the DUP are unable to form a government) then the Irish Government would have a role in any new arrangement.
“It is the position of the Irish Government that we can’t support a return to direct rule in the form that existed prior to the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement,” he said.
It’s a tepid threat at best, designed to remind rather than intimidate. The last time a similar tactic was deployed was in 2006, when Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair issued a joint statement referring to the “implications for their joint stewardship of the process” if the St Andrews agreement talks failed.
The manoeuvre was utilised during a particularly fraught impasse, and was designed to directly influence the internal difficulties faced by Reverend Ian Paisley in the DUP. It was crafted to assuage sceptics who didn’t wish to pursue the power-sharing goal. Crucially at that juncture, both governments were on the same page and working together toward the same objectives. The implied consequences only had credibility because both governments were consistent and committed.
Now, east-west relations between Ireland and the UK, whilst amiable and polite, are vastly different. Mr Varadkar faces the question of Northern Ireland in almost unfortunate isolation and not of his own making. For the first time in a number of decades, the UK government’s attitude to stability in Northern Ireland is crumbling in favour of self-serving survival.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has said there will be no question of Britain sharing joint authority with Ireland in the event of direct rule being introduced in Northern Ireland. Responding to questions on September 6 in the UK Parliament she stated “The Belfast Agreement does include within it certain responsibilities in relation to the Government of the Republic of Ireland in north-south coordination”, but went on to say “I am happy to confirm that we will not be looking at a joint authority”.
One might dismiss these statements as semantics, a certain type of playing to the gallery. However regrettable her government’s position on Northern Ireland may appear, it is hardly shocking. Brexiteers forgot the question of Northern Ireland as they waged their war against Europe in last year’s referendum. Not because they deliberately disregarded it, but because they simply do not care. Northern Ireland is of no consequence to people in the UK. The province is like an interloping unwanted relative. It sits on the margins of a dysfunctional family who don’t really want it there at all.
The instant Mrs May struck the post-election ‘confidence and supply’ commitment with the DUP, the long-term ambitions for Northern Ireland were set aside in favour of the short-term political survival of one individual. It delivered a curious alliance that puts the peace process at risk by skewing the dynamic with the political parties, and by extension it has weakened the UK’s relations with the Irish Government.
For the UK government the May-Foster deal is simply a piece of modern political pragmatism, the kind that almost every parliamentary democracy in Europe has now become familiar with. However, the economic price of the deal (£1bn, €1.1bn) brings domestic questions about funding of its internal services. With her popularity drained, her confidence shot and her enemies circling, she does not need the distraction of Northern Ireland too.
Once London is charged with the administration of Northern Ireland’s affairs we would enter an entirely new and unwanted political realm. Questions will torment all sides because it furthers no political agenda and could strain relations further.
The imposition of direct rule would be disastrous for the Irish Government. For the political parties in Northern Ireland there are massive ramifications. DUP leader Arlene Foster could lose her leverage, her power and her leadership. Sinn Féin, which long ago lost its comfort blanket of “don’t hit me with the peace process in my arms”, is now fair game for all parties down south. Direct rule would intensify criticism, and the party will be further pilloried by all sides here.
The 30th anniversary of the Enniskillen bombing will take place on Wednesday. A provisional IRA bomb ripped through a town’s centre during a commemoration to honour British military who had died in the war. Eleven people were killed. Many of them old-age pensioners.
It was condemned by all sides and seen as a turning point in the Troubles. As we steel ourselves to mark yet another unwanted anniversary of a troubled past, vested political interests might recall their responsibilities to peace and to the people of Northern Ireland.