Autumn platform for Schmidt to plot the greater goal of 2019
THURSDAY’S unveiling of the 2019 World Cup schedule simply served as a reminder that Japan represents Ireland’s greatest opportunity to date of breaching the glass ceiling and progressing beyond the last eight.
Joe Schmidt would probably argue the case, but there is little doubt the pool draw is the cushiest this country have ever received given a schedule that front-loads the two toughest games before leaving them with one clash – likely to be against Samoa – in 17 or 18 days before the quarter-final, preparations will be perfect.
It’s a long way away so why, you may ask, are we talking bout this in 2017 when there’s so much rugby to be played over the next two seasons?
Well, if the pools go according to seeding, South Africa will be Schmidt’s side’s opponents in that quarter-final clash in Tokyo and it just so happens that Allister Coetzee’s men are arriving into Dublin in a week’s time – the first of 19 Tests between now and the big kick-off against Scotland in Yokohama.
Like their World Cup pool, Ireland’s schedule this month is front-loaded with the heaviest hitters arriving first. An improving, but unpredictable Fiji team are next, while the familiar, but fading figure of Argentina close out the November Series.
It lacks the glamour of last season’s saga with New Zealand, but it rounds out the tests Schmidt’s side have faced since they exited the 2015 World Cup at the hands of the Pumas.
By the end of this season, they’ll have played South Africa and Australia four times in this cycle, New Zealand twice and Argentina once.
Throw in the growing quality of the Six Nations and Kiwi challenges their strongest players faced on the Lions tour last summer and it’s quite a body of work as the big show looms.
Ireland are ranked above all three of their opponents this November and the two big guns are coming to Europe at the end of long, hard and ultimately unsuccessful seasons.
A clean sweep is very much within their grasp. Anything less would be a set-back to a team with big ambitions. VULNERABILITIES Publicly, Schmidt is bigging up his opponents while privately he’ll have picked apart their performances in search of vulnerabilities.
Winning all three matches, while integrating new blood in order to have a real crack at winning back the Six Nations is the goal.
“We’d love to scrape our way through and get three results,” Schmidt said.
“But I think the quality of the performance of some of the individuals that we’re looking to give an opportunity, that will be equally important for us.
“Performance-wise, getting some of those players that we really want to give an opportunity.
“So you’ll see a few changes through the three Tests. For us, a really positive Series is to continue from Japan a little bit.
“We don’t have too many windows. The next window is a massive pressure cooker for us. It’s Six Nations, it’s the big competition of the year.
“If we want to get a window where we can still look to be as competitive as we can be but also grow the group a bit, this is our window.”
Looking at the players released from the 38-man squad for provincial action this week, it appears likely to be a largely familiar line-up against South Africa next weekend, with plenty of change for Fiji and somewhere in between for the Argentinians.
The Boks arrive on the back of another disappointing Rugby Championship in which they beat Argentina twice, drew both games with Australia and had two very different defeats to New Zealand – one a record shellacking away and the other a brilliant performance culminating in a near miss at home.
Coach Coetzee remains under huge pressure given Rassie Erasmus’s impending return.
Argentina lost all six games in the tournament, indeed they have beaten just Japan and Georgia in their last 17 Test matches.
That has seen the Pumas slip below Fiji on the World Rugby Rankings after the Islanders won four of their five Tests in 2017 to date – losing to Australia, but beating Italy, Scotland, Samoa and Tonga.
“For South Africa, we would love to be really competitive and get our noses in front, obviously,” Schmidt said.
“Fiji, that’s going to be a real physical challenge, The last two years we’ve had Canada and Georgia in those middle Tests and it’s given us a little bit of an opportunity to come up for air. There’s no coming up for air with some of the behemoths (Fiji) have and the way they move. They’re a fantastic, athletic team.
“We know Argentina pretty well and the disappointment we suffered last time at their hands, we’d love to rectify that.”
The freshness in the squad got lost in the furore around Simon Zebo’s exclusion last week but the spine of Schmidt’s team is likely to remain in place.
However, a World Cup schedule that pits both of Ireland’s most important pool games within five days of one another shows a need to have rotation options, so this is a perfect time to build depth.
While Jack McGrath and the in-form Cian Healy are relatively inter-changeable and there is a slew of back-rows of similar quality, the same cannot be applied across the positions.
So, Schmidt will continue the fast-tracking of the 2016 U-20 World Cup crop he introduced last summer and Jacob Stockdale could even start next weekend.
Bundee Aki is set for a central role alongside his old mate Robbie Henshaw and the addition of his power and class will strengthen Ireland’s hand in attack.
After the storm that greeted his squad selection, the coach can find comfort in positive results and performances as he pivots towards 2019.
A clean sweep would do nicely.
IRELAND (Predicted team v South Africa) – R Kearney; K Earls, B Aki, R Henshaw, J Stockdale; J Sexton, C Murray; C Healy, R Best (capt), T Furlong; I Henderson, D Toner; R Ruddock, S O’Brien, CJ Stander. Reps: J Tracy, J McGrath, J Ryan, U Dillane, P O’Mahony, K Marmion, J Carbery, A Conway.