SF power move puts focus on Martin and Varadkar

IN A real way, the question about Sinn Féin being acceptable to share government in Dublin will switch with a vengeance to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil from next Friday onwards.

A motion that effectively dilutes Sinn Féin’s insistence on being the largest party in any coalition south of the Border is likely to be backed by delegates voting at this weekend’s Ard Fheis in Dublin. Add to that the departure of the problematic Gerry Adams from the leadership, and it is very much “coalition game on”.

Expect a whole load of new pressure coming on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and especially their leaders, to unequivocally state their position on sharing power with Sinn Féin in this jurisdiction.

Any way you look at things, Sinn Féin will be a large chunk of government-making trade after the next general election. The party’s slow march in the Republic since abandoning its sterile Dáil boycott back in 1985 has gathered pace in the last two elections.

Last time out, in February 2016, it took 14pc of the vote and returned 23 out of 158 TDs. It could have been a player in the subsequent 70 days of government-making talks, strongly testing Enda Kenny’s and Fine Gael’s no-truck protestations, but it chose a bid to be the real leader of the Opposition.

There was also a strange sense of underachievement in that 2016 election, in part due to a poor campaign by Gerry Adams, who dropped the ball in economic debate, and at times appeared tired. The how and when of his certain departure will be carefully watched.

There is no doubt that his standing down would boost the party in the Republic, though its impact in the North will be watched with some nervousness. Dublin Central TD and deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald is considered far ahead of a small field of rivals in the succession stakes.

But the point will be made again and again that Ms McDonald, while a leading light in the post-Troubles generation, has never even peripherally criticised Gerry Adams.

Indeed, she and all others from the party’s rising generation have stood by Mr Adams through a whole series of controversies. The questions surrounding Mr Adams certainly scared off many mainstream middleIreland voters, at a time of otherwise major disillusionment with mainstream politicians, and hampered the party’s efforts to broaden its canvass.

In a post-Adams world, these issues will be put to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The easier part will be to keep the “no, nay, never” refrain going this side of the next election count.

Any perceived wobble by anyone of any consequence in either of the ‘big two’ will risk mass desertion by middle class voters.

The questioning before the election will focus on ruling out the “Sinn Féin option” irrespective of what Dáil arithmetic is thrown up by voters.

It will be hard to do that convincingly to voters used to numbers dictating all.