High stakes at play for parties as Christmas election looms
IT was impossible to ignore the eerie atmosphere that pervaded Leinster House as politicians from all parties and none tried to make sense of a political crisis that nobody saw coming.
While Thursday night saw the re-emergence of tribal politics and petty point scoring between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the mood struck a much more sombre note from early yesterday.
TDs packed their cars and headed back to their constituencies, somewhat nervous of the reception they were about to receive.
The hard talk coming from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil the previous night had been replaced with a sense of trepidation as TDs openly questioned whether they would be punished for forcing the country to the polls.
Nonetheless, within Leinster House, the various strategy teams were hard at work preparing for an election that nobody expected, and few really want. Here’s what at stake and the tactics at play for each block.
Fine Gael
Fine Gael called a special meeting of its national executive for tomorrow as it prepares to fast-track a number of constituency selection conventions.
The convention for Dublin Bay South (the battleground of minister Eoghan Murphy and Kate O’Connell) was due to be held after Christmas but will now take place on Monday.
While Fine Gael does not want an election, particularly at Christmas, the party is feeling confident with being led by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Mr Varadkar has told colleagues he intends to stand by embattled Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald and he is not prepared to wait until the New Year to go to the polls.
If the recent Fine Gael leadership election is anything
to go by, Mr Varadkar will have already directed his advisory team to begin mapping out his plans to win the next election.
Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin summoned his frontbench to a special meeting in Leinster House yesterday morning, during which he set out his party’s strategy.
Mr Martin insisted the matter at hand is a “human issue”, whereby Garda whistleblower Sergeant Maurice McCabe has seen his integrity trampled upon.
A number of Fianna Fáil TDs expressed their concerns that forcing the country to go to the polls over an email would be a “hard sell”. But Mr Martin insisted he was standing firm and that Ms Fitzgerald must step aside or be sacked.
Senior Fianna Fáil strategists admit they don’t want an election but feel the party will appear extremely weak if, after previous false starts, it once again fails to follow through with its threats when it comes to another justice crisis.
Independent Alliance
Unsurprisingly, the Independent Alliance, which is in Government with Fine Gael, called for calm and cool heads to stave off a general election that it says the country does not want.
The Alliance’s five TDs know the group’s reputation has been significantly damaged as a result of the recent controversies involving the proposed trip to North Korea and the Workplace Relations Commission ruling involving Waterford TD John Halligan.
Another reason why the Alliance does not want a snap election is because two of its ministers, Mr Halligan and Finian McGrath, are unsure as to whether they will stand again. There would also be doubts surrounding the seats held by Seán Canney in Galway East, Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran in Longford-Westmeath and Shane Ross in Dublin Rathdown.
Sinn Féin
Sinn Féin regularly calls for the ‘nuclear option’ of a general election whenever a controversy strikes the Government.
Even as far back as June, the party’s de facto leader Mary Lou McDonald called on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to end their government formation and for a fresh general election to be held.
There was a commonly held view within political circles this week that an election would not suit Sinn Féin because its president Gerry Adams is not due to step aside until the New Year.
But Mr Adams resolved that issue in an interview yesterday when he revealed that Ms McDonald would lead the party in to a snap general election.
And with Sinn Féin now willing to be a minority partner, the question remains: will anyone do business with them?
Labour Party
The current political crisis engulfing the Government has been caused, in part, by a series of parliamentary questions tabled by Labour TD for Tipperary Alan Kelly, the former Environment Minister.
But, ironically, Mr Kelly’s ageing party could be almost wiped out in any snap election.
A series of opinion polls show Labour could be returned with just a handful of TDs – with even Mr Kelly’s own seat far from secure.
A leadership question also remains after Mr Kelly put Brendan Howlin on notice earlier this month.