FF’s gut reaction has us on course for unwanted election as tide of political momentum hard to halt
THERE was Alan Kelly going all round the place, getting himself noticed, and building his profile as part of his ongoing campaign to replace Brendan Howlin as Labour Party leader.
He knew he had the ideal weapon to harbour plenty of air time. What was at stake was a classic ‘who knew what and when’ email. And it had that all important whiff of sulphur; dodgy dealings may have been afoot.
Admittedly it was a bit obscure from the viewpoint of the general public. But no matter. It was linked to what has proved to be the most incendiary name in our recent political lexicon – Maurice McCabe.
So, undaunted, Mr Kelly stayed in the spotlight. But as he did the round of television and radio studios, clocking up all those media miles, it was inevitable other Opposition politicos would get in on the act. This was an irresistible opportunity to have a real good clout at the Government. All the more so as Tánaiste and ex-justice minister Frances Fitzgerald was flailing in the eye of a gathering storm.
Deputy Kelly’s outrage was soon dwarfed by the cold political cunning of Sinn Féin. Perhaps flushed by post-Ard Fheis energy, it decided to go for the jugular. But the real reason for all the high-stakes drama is that the SF decision to table a vote of no confidence stirred something deep and visceral within Fianna Fáil.
And it is this gut reaction by the main Opposition party that has been the singular event of the past 48 hours. However, this kind of convulsion within Fianna Fáil has been brewing for some time. Strange stirrings have been gathering pace. The truth of the matter is that there has been an eerie kind of mood in the party these past few months. It really all started when Leo Varadkar replaced Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.
This was a salutary reminder for some of those on the Opposition benches that time is passing. The once most-powerful political organisation in the country feels more than ever it is languishing on the sidelines – left swinging in the wind. Meanwhile, the new Taoiseach can cut a dash on the European stage, while getting his super-duper spin doctoring unit in place, and swapping stories about socks with his Canadian counterpart.
It has all gradually become too much for Fianna Fáil deputies, lost in the no man’s land of the Opposition benches. To add salt to the wound, the economy is not going half bad – and Leo is also doing OK in the polls.
The ending of the Kenny era, and his replacement with a much younger successor, has made more than a few Fianna Fáil deputies feel they are just marking time. They feel Mr Varadkar and his frontbenchers have been leading a relatively charmed political life, all because of their willingness to go on eating humble pie. For them the confidence and supply deal has become a nauseating daily offering, increasingly difficult to digest.
This relative youth of the current Taoiseach is especially a reminder that the clock is ticking on the careers of some of the more mature Fianna Fáil deputies. And it is no secret an increasing number of their more ambitious younger counterparts are champing at the bit to get their place in the sun.
But the other vital factor in propelling this Dáil towards a state of selfextinction is the razor-edge competition between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin on so many levels. The stakes have never been higher following the announcement the Gerry Adams era is drawing to a close.
Fianna Fáil is fully aware a subtle rebranding process – with Mary Lou McDonald as leader – has been under way for some time. In various constituencies this will intensify an already fierce on-the-ground rivalry for Dáil seats. Almost overnight the pressures on Micheál Martin have reached unprecedented proportions. He has got a resurgent Fine Gael, with a new man at the helm, on one side. On his other flank is Sinn Féin, which also has the momentum of revamped leadership – insisting all the while it wants a post-election coalition deal.
Most ominously, Mr Martin also has a rump in his own Dáil grouping willing to cut a deal with Sinn Féin, if it will propel both parties to power. Personally he may find such an arrangement anathema and has said so on many occasions. But should Dáil arithmetic point to a certain reality, will he be able to hold the line? Will he be able to protect his own leadership – and also the country – from having a party in government so recently linked to death and destruction?
Whatever happens in the coming days, the possibility of an ongoing working relationship between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is effectively over. The plug will be pulled sooner rather than later.
Maybe the sharp winds of the current pre-Christmas chill had something to do with setting the mood. Twinkling seasonal lights bedeck the streets around our national parliament. But it looks as if the darkness of early winter can scarcely be kept at bay. This Dáil has become an eerie place almost overnight – with an air of increasing unreality dictating events.
THE momentum of politics is sometimes unstoppable. Every parliament has its own life force. And then, in the natural order of things, its vibrancy and sense of purpose eventually fades away. That is what we have seen in Leinster House in what seems like the blink of an eye. An 11th-hour deal to save the country from a most unwanted election will only put the heartbeat of this Dáil on life support.
But we must remember that now infamous email, which Ms Fitzgerald may or may not have read, has little to do with the fact party leaders, ministers, frontbenchers, and TDs, have been stumbling towards the cliff edge. Much more relevant are seething ambitions and disappointments in Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, and Labour. Such emotions are raging for an outlet; this Dáil is now a pressure cooker with the temperature rising to unsustainable levels.
All day yesterday we had high-wire politics. Sometimes, as action breeds reaction, the time and tide of events can be nigh impossible to halt. Sometimes, for good or ill, matters just have to run their course. In this case that could mean a general election.
Seething ambitions and disappointments are raging for an outlet; this Dáil is a pressure cooker with temperatures rising to unsustainable levels