More investment is crucial to stop us being the ‘weak link’ in defence across Europe

THE tectonic plates of the EU’s security environment have begun to move. In response to increased terrorist attacks, Russian military action in Crimea and Ukraine, Brexit and US pressure for Europe to increase defence spending, 23 EU member states have signed up to Pesco (Permanent Structured Co-operation).

Pesco, which will be formally launched at the EU Summit next month, is designed to enhance defence co-operation among member states. Our Government has also agreed to sign up, and a vote is due to take place in the coming weeks. Its members are committed to regularly increasing defence spending in real terms. It is also seen, by some, as a step towards setting up an EU Defence Union. Neutrals Austria, Sweden and Finland have signed up. However, in or out of Pesco, Ireland will not be able to remain, indefinitely, as the weak link in European defence. Moreover, the EU Parliament’s foreign and security committee has already been calling for the EU to adopt Nato’s target of 2pc of GDP on defence spending, as the target for all EU member states.

While the Irish Defence budget has stabilised over the past few years, there are no signs yet of the substantial increase in investment required to meet the huge gaps in Defence Forces’ capabilities. Spending on defence continues to average 0.5pc of GDP, the lowest in the EU (average 1.3pc), lower even than Luxembourg (0.6pc).

The Irish policy of underfunding defence is long-standing and intentional. Even back in the 1970s, a very senior, and influential, civil servant, explained this policy to a military audience. He cheerfully compared Ireland to a motorist who neither insured, nor maintained, his car. Everything will be fine, he said, “so long as we don’t have an accident, or are not stopped by the guards”.

More than 40 years later, Ireland has still not been invaded, World War III did not happen, and all the money saved on defence has, no doubt, been gainfully used on infrastructure, health, education and welfare. Maybe he was right, after all, but still, would you be happy to drive an uninsured, and unmaintained, car for 40 years? Underfunding defence, over the long-term, is a high-risk strategy.

Forty years may be a bit long to have a car, but, in the history of a nation, it is just a blink of an eye. To understand the long-term risk of war you have to project scenarios over a much larger timeframe. In the past 100 years alone, every country in Europe has known the horrors of war, with the exception of Sweden and Switzerland. Notably, both these countries’ successes in remaining out of conflict are not accidental. They have always taken defence seriously.

Since World War II, the Irish public has not taken national defence seriously. The most recent example of lack of public interest was starkly demonstrated by the poor response to the green paper on defence launched in 2013. In a population of 4.7 million, the green paper generated only 122 submissions to the Department of Defence. In contrast, the National Convention on the Eighth Amendment resulted in more than 13,500 submissions. Conclusion: the Irish people are 100 times more interested in the abortion issue than national defence.

Not so in the North, where the DUP agreed to maintaining UK defence spending at 2pc of GDP, as part of its deal with the Conservative Party, without any noticeable objections from the other Northern Ireland parties. It seems the taxpayer in Newry is content to pay four times as much on defence as his southern counterpart, 20km away, in Dundalk.

By underinvestment in defence we continue to deprive our Defence Forces of the means to provide a credible national defence. A credible defence means having the conventional military capabilities to make it too costly for armed aggression to be directed at the State. In a world where no nation can guarantee its own defence, all defence policies rely heavily on this deterrent principle. Nor is the general assumption that we will never be attacked relevant. As we have learned from history, over a strategic timeframe the geopolitical situation can change, and change rapidly.

Until we address our defence funding properly, Ireland will continue to be regarded as a free-riding Celtic State on the periphery of the North Atlantic.

Since World War II the Irish public has not taken defence seriously

Colonel Dorcha Lee (retired) is a former Defence Forces Provost Marshal and Director of Military Police