Fianna Fáil believes it is the wolf, but Varadkar is no lamb
■ Martin’s career-defining moment is upon him
SITTING in the Dáil bar, the Fianna Fáil TDs were largely unsure what Jim O’Callaghan was about to do. The justice spokesman was no more than 100 metres away in the makeshift RTÉ studio at the back of Leinster House.
He looked somewhat uncomfortable but his language and intent on the ‘Six One News’ were very clear.
“She has to go,” he declared, making what many Fianna Fáil TDs believed was the closing argument in the case of ‘The Opposition versus Frances Fitzgerald’.
The hope, according to insiders, was that the Tánaiste would be gone in time for the ‘Nine News’.
It is worth acknowledging that Mr O’Callaghan was a “mere foot solider”, sent out in front of the cavalry to open fire on the weakened Tánaiste.
Her scalp just weeks before the recess would make for a very merry Christmas among the Soldiers of Destiny.
But rather than a parting shot at Ms Fitzgerald, it turned out Mr O’Callaghan had actually started a war.
The initial reaction of the troops watching in the Dáil bar was pretty positive.
“Leo will have to sack her now,” said one TD confidently – but politics is rarely that simple. ‘New politics’ never is.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met with his advisers and a small group of ministers in the hours after the news bulletin and made a very calculated decision to fight on. No woman left behind.
Simon Harris, Simon Coveney, Michael Ring and Eoghan Murphy were all sent out to bat. Nothing unites a party like an attack from outside.
Even the Fine Gael ministers and TDs who had been privately bad-mouthing Ms Fitzgerald in the previous days were promising to shed blood for her.
And suddenly Fianna Fáil found itself on the hook for causing a general election.
By yesterday morning Jim O’Callaghan was back on the airwaves, telling Pat Kenny on Newstalk that they were not throwing the Tánaiste to the wolves.
He was correct – because in this scenario Fianna Fáil clearly believed it was the wolf.
Frances Fitzgerald was tired, vulnerable and isolated. She seemed like an easy take-down until out of nowhere her Cabinet colleagues who had been so silent in the days previous rode to her defence.
It quickly became obvious that the cheers from the Dáil bar were somewhat premature.
The assumption that Ms Fitzgerald would walk away was wrong and now Fianna Fáil faces an election that it doesn’t want.
For Micheál Martin the next election is a final opportunity to become Taoiseach. The fact he has rolled the dice now means he must be every bit as nervous as Fitzgerald to see how this plays out.
Regardless of what happens this weekend, Ms Fitzgerald is at the end of a distinguished and welldefined career. Ironically even if Fine Gael was to win an election, she is unlikely to be returned as tánaiste in a new government.
On the other hand, the
defining moment of Micheál Martin’s career might now be just four weeks away.
He will either become the 14th leader of the country or he will become the first leader of Fianna Fáil not to take possession of the keys to the Department of An Taoiseach.
The Cork TD must win the election, whenever it is, or his moment will have passed.
That is why it is questionable whether a cold,
miserable December election suits his purposes.
Fianna Fáil’s s uccessful rebirth during last year’s campaign was built from the grassroots up. It outsprinted Fine Gael in the boreens of rural Ireland and through the housing estates in the urban areas outside of Dublin.
The message was simple: ‘An Ireland For All’. Mr Martin spotted that the country wasn’t over the recession and the hardship of austerity.
So while Fine Gael bragged about how they would ‘Keep The Recovery Going’, Fianna Fáil talked about quality of life, health and housing.
It wasn’t just ‘the economy stupid’ any more.
Out of all the main party leaders, Mr Martin looked the fittest and most exciting. After 14 years in Cabinet that was some achievement.
But the goalposts have
shifted dramatically in the interim.
Enda Kenny and Gerry Adams are gone. Step forward Leo Varadkar and Mary Lou McDonald.
And while Fine Gael is still struggling to find language that speaks to those who are struggling, it can’t possibly be as numb to society’s ills as last time out.
For what it’s worth, Fine Gael has also left Fianna Fáil in its wake when it comes to communicating by social media.
Sources on both sides say if there is an election it will be fought through the media rather than on the ground.
There is an apprehension among TDs about knocking on doors as families are putting up their lights and stressed out by the festive build- up. Then there is the opinion polls that Mr Martin always claims to ignore.
IT won’t overtly worry the Fianna Fáil leader that he is trailing in the polls, but you can be sure his deputies are watching them closely.
Mr Martin needs to keep the ‘locker room’ in the coming days.
Any hint of dissent and it’s Fine Gael who will begin to smell blood.
It’s an extraordinary moment for Fianna Fáil to have effectively called Leo Varadkar’s bluff.
With a homelessness crisis and the health system still in tatters, it’s also an unexpected topic for it to take the country to the polls.
The wolves might as well be howling at the moon as trying to explain to Christmas shoppers why Frances Fitzgerald’s email matters to their lives.
Micheál has rolled the dice and all bets are off.