John Downing:
Martin has gambled – and he can’t back down now
ARMED with nothing other than a bottle of Blue Nun and a halftin of USA biscuits, Micheál Martin should land into Government Buildings and sort out this bothersome matter man-to-man with Leo Varadkar. I mean nobody wants to go forward in politics at Christmas with a turkey in one hand and a ballot box in the other.
Oh, if only politics was even sometimes as easy as all that. The problem is that two of Irish politics’ bigger beasts, leading Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, have painted themselves deep into the corner.
It’s high-stakes stuff for both leaders. But, when you weigh up both sides, Micheál Martin has more to lose. If he is seen to back down on this one, it could spell an early end for his party leadership.
If he drives things all the way to a snap early general election, he risks taking major grief from voters angry that he is the principal cause of an election few people want.
He already knows that he is at serious risk of being accused of behaving recklessly ahead of crucial Brexit talks culminating at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on December 14 and 15.
As Green Party leader Eamon Ryan remarked: “Has Leo Varadkar had any time to even think about Brexit over the past few days?”
Whatever else happens over the coming days, there are already strong signals from the Fianna Fáil camp that the Brexit talks will be “protected” at all costs. That at least is good to hear – but the next task will be to persuade the voters that this is borne out in reality.
At time of writing, this game of political chicken could go either way. Publicly, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are holding fast to their not-an-inch positions.
Mr Varadkar insists he will not sacrifice his Tánaiste as demanded by Micheál Martin. For his part, Mr Martin says if Frances Fitzgerald does not resign from Government, his party’s no-confidence motion will go ahead, making an early election inevitable.
But they continue talking. There was some suggestion in political circles that a kind of “half-way house”, with Ms Fitzgerald standing aside temporarily until a tribunal examines the controversy, could fix things. But this appeared complex and problematic. The office of Tánaiste has status in the Constitution and the feeling in Fine Gael was that if she departed that office, she would have to be replaced, and would be less likely ever return to Government.
It is not an easy one by any means for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who is facing his first big test since taking up office on June 14. Giving up his deputy head of Government would be a big blow. Some TDs close to to him have warned that such a concession would be followed by Opposition moves to claim another political scalp, possibly current Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan.
That appears to be the majority view in the Fine Gael parliamentary party. But it is not a universal view. Others argue that Ms Fitzgerald should quit today before she is ousted tomorrow, also taking the entire Government with her.
Micheál Martin’s position is even more circumscribed here. Last February he took serious internal grief for giving Fine Gael “a pass” in a similar confidence vote arising from bizarre comments by thenTaoiseach Enda Kenny, who had recalled a conversation that never took place.
Some within Fianna Fáil might ruefully reflect that it would have been better to force things on that occasion. But such hindsight is not much use here.
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams’s announcement nine days ago that he was quitting clearly injected urgency into things for Micheál Martin. The certainty that Mary Lou McDonald would succeed Mr Adams compounded this as she is likely to be a far better vote-getter in the Republic.
Mr Martin and his key lieutenants believed they could not yet again “sit on their hands” while Sinn Féin took the moral high ground, demanding higher standards in justice and policing, of all topic areas. His leadership of the party would have been called into question sooner rather than later if he did that.
But being seen to be goaded into action by Sinn Féin brings its own problems. The circumstances surrounding this motion of no confidence in the Tánaiste are complex and arcane.
We have already noted the crucial nature of Brexit developments, a topic that dwarfs all others on the current political agenda. The clear danger is that Mr Martin may be blamed for fomenting an unwanted election and punished accordingly by voters.
Fine Gael can argue that the issues concerned, notably the long suffering of Garda Sergeant Maurice McCabe, will not be improved by a snap election. It can further point out that the issues surrounding this controversy were set to be examined by Mr Justice Peter Charleton’s tribunal from early January. H OTLY contested tales of Fianna Fáil TDs cheering in the Dáil bar at news of their planned no-confidence motion do not help either. It is hard to tell voters how febrile things can sometimes become inside the Leinster House bubble.
Barring some trope, worthy of a political Houdini, we look set to vote soon. And in reality, it was always going to come to that given the current lack of a Dáil majority. We just did not think it would happen like this.
All that being said, maybe a seasonal call to Government Buildings by Mr Martin is not such a nutty idea. Maybe he could forget the biscuits and bring more wine.
Fine Gael can argue that the issues, notably the long suffering of Sergeant Maurice McCabe, will not be improved by an unwanted election