WAYNE BAILEY’S TOP WEEKEND RACING TIPS
IF you spend a day in any bookie shop or pub showing racing, you will hear all sorts of theories – some of them sensible, some of them half-baked, relating to betting.
We all have our quirks, I suppose, and back horses, trainers or jockeys under certain conditions.
A friend of mine, for example, always bets on grey horses. How he thinks colour could make a difference to its chances I’ve no idea, but out of curiosity, I looked it up and found that bay/brown horses are the most successful, winning 11.2pc of their races, while Chestnut-coloured horses have the worst record at 9.8pc.
Greys are in between at 10.3pc but these are simply random, sometimes interesting statistics, and I don’t let them influence my betting.
Another one you hear quite often is “always back the topweight in a handicap” or indeed, “never back the top-weight in a handicap”.
RANDOM
The same is often said about the bottom-weight in handicaps but the stats on this carry a little more credence as the assigned weight, based on the opinion of the handicapper, obviously has a physical effect on how well or otherwise the horse will perform and isn’t random.
If you take the top-weight in all handicaps, regardless of code, the win-rate is just under 15pc, and that win-rate gets progressively worse as you go down the weights, with bottom-weights winning just over 8pc of the time.
That’s quite significant, although there are a few variances in code, with top-weights winning 16pc of handicaps chases, for example, and bottom-weights winning 11pc of such races.
Of course, strike-rate is one thing but, when it comes to betting, return on investment is key. That is, how much on average you would win or lose per €1 staked on each horse.
Generally speaking, the return on investment is still better on top-weights compared to bottom weights but, as I say, the figures change a bit depending on code and conditions.
So, if you are using statistics to help narrow down the field, make sure the sample sizes are large on each data set for reliability.
With all that said, you’d think I’d be put off backing horses at the bottom of the weights but, despite the stats, they still offer good value on occasions.
I’m quite keen on Nicky Richards’ Guitar Pete for the Grade Three Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (1.55 Cheltenham), available at 12/1 yesterday evening.
Having backed Aso in this last year (runner-up at 13/2), it would be nice to go one better, and you can disregard Guitar Pete’s ninth place last time in the BetVictor Gold Cup here last month as he was badly hampered at the first, and had no chance after.
Splash Of Ginge won that particular race very well, but was only fourth when Guitar Pete won a handicap chase at Wetherby previously, when both were rated 134.
Guitar Pete remains off that rating, but with Splash Of Ginge now up to 139 today, I think the 8/1 about Nigel Twiston-Davies’s gelding is a little short.
Nicky Richards has said that Guitar Pete is “in great fettle” so fingers crossed he gets a clear round of jumping in under Ryan Day, who is set to claim 3lbs.
Paul Nicholls’s top-weight Clan Des Obeaux may go off as favourite and has strong claims, but is also too short for me around 7/2.
He won the Graduation Chase at Haydock last time with plenty in hand although today’s racing weight of 11st 12lbs may be enough to hold him back.
A little later on the same card, The New One can break the record and land a fourth win in the Unibet International Hurdle (3.05).
According to Twiston-Davies, the nine-year-old is thriving, and a penalty here is not worrying his trainer considering he gave My Tent Or Yours 8lbs in last year’s renewal.
He ran a decent race when fourth in the Greatwood Handicap last time, and yesterday evening’s odds of 2/1 look reasonably fair.
EACH-WAY
I was surprised to see Shepherd’s
Purse chalked up as high as 10/1 in the early betting for the Sunbets. co.uk Handicap on the all-weather at Wolverhampton this evening (8.45), an each-way steal if you ask me.
Formerly trained in Ireland by Joseph Murphy, the gelding is having his first run for David Loughnane, having last been seen on the sand at Laytown when coming fourth of 10 runners in a handicap.
Laytown form is hard to quantify but he was once rated above 100 in Ireland as a threeyear-old.
While that might not have much relevance aged five, he does have talent and was knocking on the door a few times more recently when rated in the 80s and 90s.
Before Laytown, he was fourth in a useful handicap at Dundalk, and this mark of 78 looks quite lenient all considered.
He’s usually seen to best effect when making the running, so I hope to see jockey PJ McDonald get out early and stay out of trouble.