Lady Ischia overlooked in bumper betting
WITH 21 winners from 111 bets in the year 2017, Gordon Elliott (right) is well worth following in beginners’ chases – and had you put €1 on each of those runners since January, you’d be €33 better off to SP, or €208 better off to Betfair SP.
The juggernaut rolls on at Fairyhouse today with two entries for the opening Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase (12.05), and BRELADE gets the vote over Minella Till Dawn, albeit at a restrictive price around even-money.
Placed in Grade One company over hurdles, he’s been a little unlucky to bump into some talented sorts in his four chases to date, leaving him to settle for the runner-up spot on three occasions.
He ran no sort of race when last of four in a Grade Two at Punchestown last time but I’m going to overlook that effort and give him another chance in what looks a winnable contest.
Willie Mullins’ Bravissimo is the danger horse, although he also came up short in a novice chase at Punchestown last time out.
We’ve Grade Two action at Navan tomorrow and once again an Elliott runner is likely to head the market around 5/4 in the Navan Novice Hurdle (12.50).
Cracking Smart won a Listed hurdle at Cork last month over three miles, which would suit this future chaser better than today’s two and a half.
He’ll surely be thereabouts but at the prices, preference is for the Willie Mullins-trained NEXT
DESTINATION, available at 13/8 in the early betting.
Fourth in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, he got his hurdling career off to a f lyer when beating a number of smart horses to land a competitive maiden at Naas last time by an impressive 13 lengths under Paul Townend.
David Mullins gets the ride tomorrow, and this may well turn out to be a match between the top two in the market, although it wouldn’t be a total shock if the likes of Poli Roi and Jetz get involved.
Next up is the Grade B Tara Handicap Hurdle (1.20), one of those races in which a good case could be made for at least half a dozen of the 16 runners.
I’m tempted to go for the lazy option and back the Gordon Elliott-trained favourite Diamond Cauchois, which is expected to go off around 4/1 under Davy Russell having placed at this level a month ago on the first run for the yard. But once again, he looks the type that will want further.
Instead, a tentative each-way vote goes to JIMMY BREEKIE which I’m hoping to back around 10/1.
Stuart Crawford’s seven-yearold was third on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse recently off a mark of 123, which wasn’t the worst showing considering he was around 20/1 in the betting.
Just 1lb higher today for a racing weight of 10st 8lbs leaves him in with every chance of a place at the least under jockey Jonathan Moore.
The day wraps up with the Listed “Future Champions” INH Flat Race (3.30) in which Elliott again has a strong hand with Felix Desjy and Rapid Escape, priced 6/5 and 15/8 respectively at the time of writing.
The former is unbeaten in two runs under rules and has a smart look about him, while the latter’s easy win in a Punchestown bumper in November had a lot to like about it.
But the bookmakers are taking no chances here and I reckon LADY ISCHIA risks getting overlooked around 5/1 and could be a bit of value.
A bumper winner at Naas last month, Gavin Cromwell’s mare gets a 7lb sex allowance which could make the difference, and I was particularly taken with her win in a bumper here in early November, in what looked a tricky contest.
Despite strong market support, she failed to deliver in a Listed bumper at Navan last time, but it came a little too soon after Naas and she looked weary.
A three-week break will have freshened her up for tomorrow.