The Brexit wagon, laden with riddle and anomaly, creaks on

SOME of you will recognise that sinking feeling that comes with finding you’re the “most grownup and sensible” member of the group. Unless you’re supremely confident and competent, or a deluded idiot, that’s usually a scary feeling.

The reality is that for a long time Ireland has been the “sensible one” in this Brexit farrago. The Government knows nearenough where it wants to go and has made serious efforts to get there with some success.

That’s good news – but otherwise Brexit good news is scarce. It’s good being sensible and grown up – but since Ireland accounts for 1pc of the EU population, it would be better to have some company.

There are too many moving parts to Brexit, clinging and clanging in potentially different directions. Theresa May’s floundering and divided minority government in London is literally scaring the EU negotiators and leaders in other key member state capitals.

Other big picture happenings across Europe are also deeply unhelpful. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government-making efforts, after elections back in September, are taking a very long time with no end in sight. Spain is up in a heap due to the Catalan dispute, where elections are due on Thursday.

Little wonder that Brexit talks are progressing at a snail’s pace. At close of this EU leaders’ summit they have agreed that Brexit talks can move on to the second phase in January. This will cover how the UK manages the transition out of EU membership and sketch future principles for EU-UK relations after Britain does leave.

Ireland continued to do well. The leaders also stipulated that phase two can only progress if earlier commitments are “translated faithfully into legal terms as quickly as possible”. So, last week’s Irish Border Brexit deal will become part of a legally enforceable treaty.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has grounds to stoutly defend his no-Border progress so far. In essence “there will be no physical infrastructure and no associated checks or controls” under what he has been guaranteed. It is based on the EU-UK agreement on “alignment” between rules and procedures which will operate in Northern Ireland and in the rest of the EU single market. He is seeking a better outcome on the issue in the next phase of talks.

But Brussels diplomats privately admit they have little idea how this can be put into force as long as the UK quits the single market and customs union. And a demob happy Austrian premier, Christian Kern, who is about to leave office within days, was a bit more frank. He said it was “a riddle”.

But we go on to phase two – during which the Taoiseach concedes it will continue to be an uphill fight.

Happily, some logistical matters are at last becoming clearer. After Britain officially exits the EU on March 29, 2019, it will lose all representation in EU law-making apparatus and the EU Court which rules on disputes. But the EU stipulates that Britain respect all EU laws, and EU Court rulings. It means that Britain will have to obey the rules without having any say until the end of the full Brexit in 2021.

We can only speculate on the crucial part for Ireland – the model of EU-UK relations which eventually emerge. The British government says it doesn’t want to adopt any existing model for trade.

It appears against the “Norway model”. This involves closely following EU regulations in return for access to the single market and paying a good deal into EU coffers. The more limited EU-Canada-style free trade deal gets a better hearing with UK Brexit Secretary David Davis suggesting a “Canada-plus-plus-plus” deal.

The EU-Canada agreement took seven years to conclude, contains almost 1,600 pages of legal text, and is mainly focused on trade in products. The UK’s economy is essentially more servicedriven, based on banking, informatics and air travel. The “plus-plus-plus” element of any would-be EU-UK deal speaks to that services sector.

The British government itself is divided on how much economic autonomy it is willing to give up to secure close economic relations with the EU.

Like all intense pieces of negotiating, jargon abounds. Asked about “Canada-plusplus” the Taoiseach summed up everyone’s bafflement.

“I hear everything from Canada/Korea super-plus to Norway/Lichtenstein double-minus. We’ll have to wait and figure it out.”

The Brexit wagon, laden with riddles and anomalies, creaks slowly on. Time is in very short supply.