The battleground will be middle Ireland versus social-media Ireland

THE final act of a highly emotive political drama will be the Government’s response to the Oireachtas committee report on the Eighth Amendment on Wednesday.

Cabinet consideration of these recommendations changed with Enda Kenny’s retirement. A deliberate (though denied) strategy of delay and dithering has been replaced by a final acceptance that however fractious an abortion referendum, it is inescapable and will happen in 2018.

I was quite cynical of the outsourcing of this hot potato to unelected Citizens’ Assembly members. The consultative processes involving assembly and the committee shielded Enda Kenny from a repeat of the 2013 Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill, a scarring scenario wherein he lost seven parliamentary members.

However, it cannot be denied that the testimony at committee from assembly chairperson Justice Mary Laffoy was highly impressive. The process was patient, professional, impartial, thorough, and based on expertise. It heard both arguments from pro-life and pro-choice in a neutral manner. It jumped through all the hoops skilfully and received more than 13,000 submissions. It listened to women affected, along with frontline clinicians, and then it juggled with all the complexities of Article 40.3.3; Constitutional Amendments 13 and 14 (rights to travel and information); and the 2013 Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act. It was an exhaustive process.

Even so, the Oireachtas committee procedure was derided as prejudicially pro-repeal by minority members Mattie McGrath and Rónán Mullen. In fact, it was really a microcosm of the Dáil; amongst the 21 members there was pro-rata party representation, with six Fine Gael, five Fianna Fáil and all shades of politicos present. Like at the assembly, majority votes determined whether abortion should be permissible in the first instance; and if so, how restrictive – with up to a dozen legal options in play.

For ministers, there’s one simple net referendum question. A singular axis upon which only the people can decide. In 1983, the majority determined to give an “equal” right to life to the unborn child and pregnant mother. This banned abortion in all postconception circumstances of embryos and foetuses, except where the life of the mother was threatened.

The electorate must pivot on whether to retain or repeal this. All other questions are rendered redundant if there’s a majority to retain a blanket ban. Once we move beyond that point, majority opinion appears to fragment. At the Citizens’ Assembly, 87pc approved repeal. The Oireachtas committee by a margin of 15 to two (two abstentions) voted to repeal.

Subsequent votes in both bodies had much more marginal outcomes when an effective pre-referendum suite of options was put to them. Consistent opinion polls reflect a majority of 60-80pc on a straight repeal-retain choice.

Government has already started on the ground work.

Health Minister Simon Harris and Attorney General Seamus Woulfe, and their officials, have been privately working assiduously on a clear strategy to prepare and complete Dáil legislation by the end of February. This will clear the decks for a referendum during May/ June. They will publish draft bills to implement possible permissible circumstances of pregnancy terminations.

And that is when the dam burst of confusion, and vitriolic mayhem, will be

unleashed. Waves of passionate emotional arguments will sweep across the land as the full force of the global abortion debate will crash down on the heads of a bemused Irish public.

Complex and massively divisive arguments favouring abortion only in cases of fatal foetal abnormalities, non-viable infants, rape, incest, separate physical/ mental health risks to the mother, and suicide or medical threats to the mother’s life will all be churned up and deeply disputed, depending on perspectives.

But the core issue is whether you feel such considerations should be dealt with by updatable legislation or set in the cement of constitutional provision. Both fertility and abortifacient options have seen extraordinary scientific change over the past 34 years. The pace of technological development in years ahead is unknowable.

SO will the electorate trust future parliaments to legislate for the abortion regime of each generation contemporaneously? While voters can fire TDs, the current overwhelming negativity towards politicians and distrust of the body politic is so corrosive that the present electorate may not facilitate each Dáil to have autonomy over abortion regimes.

Political leaders are wary of internal defections from abortion debates. Fianna Fáil grassroots espoused a “pro-life position” at its most recent Ard Fheis. But the basic stereotypical battlegrounds are as evident as ever. Thus you will see the old versus young; city versus the country; middle Ireland versus social media Ireland; and Church versus State.

These are deep trenches and the fighting will be fierce. Columnists, bishops and gynaecologists will become household names as combat breaks out on the airwaves. And there will be no solace of escapism with the boys in green in Russia.

The strongest argument for repeal lies in the fact that between 1980 and 2014 some 163,514 women procured an abortion in the UK, giving an Irish address.

More recent estimates suggest that between eight and 12 women a day are following suit. The figures exclude online purchases of abortion pills. The constitutional prohibition hasn’t prevented Irish terminations – except for those too poor or vulnerable to travel to the UK.

And the strongest argument for retention is the fear that if the constitutional ban is lifted, it will open the floodgates to a UK (1967 Act) access to abortion-ondemand facility here.

We mustn’t forget James and Amanda Mellet’s testimony at the UN human rights committee. They revealed their harrowing story. Their baby had fatal Edwards’ syndrome. They had to go to Liverpool in November 2011 for a medical termination. The Eighth Amendment amounted to an indefensible violation of their dignity. The tragedy of Savita Halappanavar should also make us pause for thought.

Ireland is the only country in the European Union that hasn’t legalised abortion.

One alternative replacement option that’s gaining traction is to seek an electoral mandate for legalised terminations up to the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, irrespective of circumstances. Its appeal is on the basis of the early development stage of the embryo, while preserving the right to life of the unborn after this cut-off point.

If the repeal option rather than any replacement menu is put to a referendum, it will eliminate courts creating law, it would also greatly simplify the information role of the referendum commission, and avert myriad theological/ ethical complexities.

If the past has taught us anything, it is that gross misinformation, misrepresentation and deliberate falsification of facts on the doorsteps is inevitable.

Expect Leo to lead Fine Gael towards a preliminary binary choice of repeal or retain.

It’s the simplest smartest approach for the Oireachtas and people. Also, watch out for a coherent Government position and a whipped vote for ministers (not backbenchers) on this referendum bill, allowing for subsequent flexibility on specific abortion legislation.