Leo has captured zeitgeist – but callow Cabinet looks vulnerable
WHAT a difference one opinion poll can make. It’s almost two weeks since Fine Gael surged into an 11-point lead over Fianna Fáil, but you can still see it in the body language of TDs from both parties.
A pep in the step of FG deputies as the Government somewhat undeservedly has the highest satisfaction ratings for any administration since before the crash. And a noticeable slump in the shoulders of Fianna Fáilers.
The Leo bounce has arrived, with (Christmas) bells on. There’s no doubt the Taoiseach has that almost indefinable ‘X-factor’. When the TV camera zoomed in on him at Saturday’s Leinster v Exeter game in the Aviva, it brought back memories of Bertie in his pomp. Right now, he is the man.
Varadkar is, of course, very different from Ahern (for starters, Bertie’s ‘boys in blue’ played north of the Liffey) – but so too is politics today. Ahern’s strength was as a people person. That’s very obviously not Varadkar’s. Somewhat socially awkward, he’s not one to press the flesh with the party faithful or the “hard-working man”, the description Ahern used to hail every would-be male voter he canvassed.
But Varadkar does have the gift of communication, so important in today’s 24-hour news cycle. As one Fine Gaeler bluntly puts it: “Leo has the ability to sum up things in one sentence that most politicians spend ages sh**eing on about.”
For a number of reasons – his Indian immigrant background, his photogenicity, his relative youth, his sexuality – he is a uniquely modern Taoiseach in a very different, inclusive and modern Ireland.
So it’s game over then for the next general election? A question simply of who Fine Gael will govern with?
Not quite. The same thing was said about the two previous Taoisigh. Such was Brian Cowen’s early popularity, when he succeeded Ahern, an overall majority was being talked about. Just months out from the last general election, Fine Gael’s comfortable victory was taken as given. We know what happened in both cases.
It’s very possible, of course, the next election will prove entirely straightforward for Varadkar and Fine Gael. That Leo will continue to capture the zeitgeist as Bertie did for the noughties.
But if a disheartened Fianna Fáil is looking for grounds for hope, it doesn’t have to look that far. For starters, there’s the performance of the Cabinet. The style of the Government has been great, less so the substance. There’s a real danger of it being all novelty socks and no trousers.
There are some exceptionally bright people in the Government, but there is a question mark about the amount of savviness – the kind that comes with long experience in politics – around the Cabinet table.
Over half of them are either first or second-time TDs, and frankly there are times when it shows – the way the Government has dealt with the (admittedly ever-cranky) DUP is but one example.
The complete mishandling of the Frances Fitzgerald controversy is another.
There is an obvious lack of grey hair. There’s no Michael Noonan, who surely would have cautioned against rash action over Fianna Fáil’s ultimatum on Fitzgerald. No Phil Hogan. No Brian Hayes. No Ruairi Quinn, Eamon Gilmore, Brendan Howlin or Pat Rabbitte.
Intellectually, Varadkar may leave his predecessor in the shade, but with just a decade in the Dáil, compared to four for Enda Kenny, he lacks his street smarts. He’s not the only one.
Nobody senior in Fine Gael seemed willing to shout stop when the Taoiseach was in his macho rush to the polls over Fitzgerald. The war-mongering at the FG parliamentary party meeting, and the subsequent defence of the indefensible, was the political equivalent of sheep rushing over a cliff.
The poll result suggests the public didn’t pay much attention to Varadkar’s serious lack of judgment. But if the ineptness was to be repeated on an issue that mattered outside the Leinster House bubble, it might prove more costly.
There’s also a danger that this Government could be perceived as too urban, even a little elitist and out of touch.
There are, of course, plenty of down-to-earth ministers: Michael Ring, Simon Harris, Denis Naughten, Regina Doherty, Paschal Donohoe, Michael Creed and the under-rated Heather Humphreys.
It may be coincidence, but they’re all the ministers who didn’t go to private schools. There’s a very high percentage of the Cabinet, including the Taoiseach and Tánaiste, who did. Voters mightn’t care or notice either way. But if the Government hits a bad patch such characterisations, however irrelevant and unfair, may stick.
There are also question marks over how well individual ministers are performing. Simon Coveney divided opinions during his time in housing – his efforts were unstinting but results were mixed, at best. And there’s a serious lack of subtlety about his utterances in foreign affairs.
Eoghan Murphy talks a very good game in housing. But at times, understandably enough, he comes across as someone overwhelmed by the scale of the challenge.
Paschal Donohoe’s intelligence and pure decency are not in doubt. But the next budget is the acid test. A loosening of the EU rules in 2018 means he could have billions to splash, but it’s the last thing the economy needs.
Will he stand up to the political pressure to spend in advance of a general election, or go down the road of Charlie McCreevy and Brian Cowen? Not that he’ll be punished electorally if he does the latter.
Simon Harris has serious ability, but he will know better than anyone that a bad winter in emergency departments could soon see him on a hiding to nothing.
There’s also a number of ministers struggling to make any obvious impression on their departments.
The less said about Charlie Flanagan’s handling of Alan Kelly’s questioning on the whistleblower controversy, the better. Katherine Zappone, so rarely heard when it comes to detailed interviews relating to her bailiwick, surely has bigger issues to be thinking about than whether or not she appears on ‘The Restaurant’ on TV3.
The same holds for Shane Ross when it comes to flights of fancy, such as trips to North Korea and Ireland hosting the Olympics.
In short, there are plenty of weaknesses there for Fianna Fáil to exploit. There are in every government.
If the economy continues to boom and Leo continues to excel in the PR stakes, then all may stay fair for Fine Gael, and these shortcomings may not matter.
But the suspicion lingers that this is a somewhat callow Cabinet, ill-equipped to deal with the kind of crises that hit every government.
Time will tell on that but, at least until they prove otherwise, the next general election is far from a done deal.
‘There’s a danger that this Government could be perceived as too urban, even elitist and out of touch’
Shane Coleman presents Newstalk Breakfast, weekdays from 7am.