With bullies called out and pay rising, 2017 had its moments...
IT has been an eventful year. Last week, this column looked at the most negative developments at home and abroad over the course of 2017. But, as with any year, plenty of good things happened too. The calling out of abusers internationally, the return of Europe – economically and (in some ways) politically, and the strengthening of Ireland’s economic recovery are three positive developments over the past 12 months that are very much worth highlighting.
A bad year for bullies and abusers
A central strand of human history has been the gradual, if unsteady, progress from absolutism to accountability. In times past in many human societies, those at the top could do as they pleased. Kings, princes and despots could kill, rape and imprison on a whim. They did not fear being brought to book because their word was law. Their power was absolute.
Over time, societies have evolved mechanisms and norms aimed at limiting the use, misuse and abuse of power.
This evolution has usually advanced gradually. But sometimes it has suddenly leapt forward. Such a sudden leap took place this year.
The Harvey Weinstein allegations and revelations, which triggered the #metoo movement across the world, has been a genuinely important moment in the long process of limiting the power of the powerful.
It not only highlighted abuses, but offers the hope that society will look differently on those who come forward with claims against those who wield their authority unfairly.
While there is a risk that the accusatory pendulum could swing too far in the other direction, resulting in damage to innocent people’s lives, the change of the past year has been good for the weak and the powerless. Those who misuse their power will think twice in the future about how they treat those beneath them in the pecking order.
European disintegration put on hold
One of the negative developments over the course of the year, discussed in last week‘s column, was the continued fraying of the moderate centre ground in European politics, as support for the extremes continued to trend upwards in elections across the continent this year. While this is a real cause for concern, it didn’t lead to a Trump-type shock.
The French election was the biggest risk as the year began. Had Marine Le Pen pulled off the kind of shock her admirer in the White House had managed in November 2016, things would very likely have started falling apart in Europe. She advocated pulling France out of the euro and even hinted at emulating Britain with a full ‘Frexit’.
Whatever one may think about the single currency and the continent’s most important political structure, their sudden collapse would lead to chaos and economic calamity. The chances of that happening receded over the course of 2017. Le Pen recognised that her withdrawalist pledges hindered, rather than helped, her campaign.
More widely, talk of following the UK out of Europe has all but ended in every EU member country.
That is reflected in surveys of the public mood. European-wide opinion polls taken on behalf of the Eurocrats in Brussels show that citizens cross the continent have become more supportive of their respective countries’ involvement in the EU, of the EU itself and all of its works.
A recent Eurobarometer poll – taken focusing only on the euro and countries using the euro – showed that almost two-thirds of people who use the currency think that it is a good thing. That was the highest level since coins and notes were introduced more than 15 years ago.
As it happens, we Irish had the most positive view of the euro, with 85pc saying that we believed it was good for the country.
Stronger support for Europe’s unique form of co-operation may be because of Brexit – political order is a little like personal health, one only really appreciates it when it is gone – but much improved economic circumstances also played a role.
After a decade of crisis and weak recovery, 2017 finally saw Europe’s economy grow strongly. Among many other positive indicators, the numbers at work across the continent reached all-time highs and joblessness fell almost everywhere.
None of this is to say that Europe is out of the woods, but the continent ends the year in a much better place than it started.
The economy had its best year in more than a decade
“I haven’t had a pay rise since before the crash”. Over the course of the recovery, which is well over half-a-decade old, it was commonplace to hear people say this. It was to be heard less frequently as 2017 progressed.
As the 10th anniversary of the beginning of the worst recession in living memory was marked this year, pay increases finally began to kick in.
Average earnings, whether measured by hourly or weekly pay rates, are set to grow more rapidly in 2017 (according to CSO for the first nine months of the year) than any other since the crash.
Inflation-adjusted pay increases this year are on target not just to be the highest in a decade, but high by any historical standard over many decades.
That reflects a tightening labour market and, more generally, an economy in rude health, as last Friday’s economic growth figures showed.
Figures released on Tuesday by the CSO also show good news on poverty, deprivation and income equality.
Although the survey refers to 2016, it showed that the recovery was seeping in to all parts of society last year.
There is every reason to believe that these positive trends continued in 2017. All that can only add to the festive cheer.
Happy Christmas!
After a decade of crisis and weak recovery, 2017 finally saw Europe’s economy grow strongly. The numbers at work across the continent reached all-time highs and joblessness fell almost everywhere