Tánaiste shows Government is not united about the Eighth

LOOKING at the Cabinet’s ‘two Simons’ we learn just how tricky the abortion issue will be for this Government in the coming year.

Health Minister Simon Harris told this newspaper yesterday he can support the Oireachtas committee recommendation for abortion on request for women up to 12 weeks pregnant.

Today we learn Tánaiste Simon Coveney (pictured) is in clear difficulty about any such proposition. While he is far less explicit at this stage about what he will do, it looks extremely likely that he will not back the 12-week proposition.

Even allowing for the “free vote” within Fine Gael on the issue, this is serious stuff.

It means the Government could end up proposing a course of action that does not have full support of all its Cabinet members.

This in turn raises questions about the passage any legislation, based on the Oireachtas committee’s recommendations, through the Dáil and Seanad to pave the way for a referendum next summer.

That of itself may raise doubt about the passage of the referendum itself – irrespective of what opinion polls tell us.

Let’s especially recall here that opinion polls suggesting big support for change were based on suggestions that stopped far short of the Oireachtas committee recommendations.

We will learn much more about all of this when the Dáil resumes in the middle of next month.

For now, it is very likely the Taoiseach will persist with the promise he made on June 14 last, his first day in office, that a referendum on the 1983 Eighth Amendment will be held next summer.

All signs are that this referendum will simply propose removal of the wording put into the Constitution in September 1983. The bigger question is whether the parallel legislation proposed will be as radical as the committee proposals.

If it is not, there is the real risk that those who advocate a more liberal abortion regime in Ireland will strongly oppose it. There will already be opposition from those who strongly advocate retaining the Constitution as it is.

So far we can only count on the middle ground of Irish politics being able to agree that the current situation is unsatisfactory and that a referendum is desirable.

But the abortion issue remains politically fraught and there is no guarantee that we can resolve things in the coming year.