Fianna Fáil will call election this year ... with housing the obvious reason

THEREwillbea general election in 2018. That’s not a brave new year prediction; it’s merely a reflection on the reality facing Fianna Fáil and its leader Micheál Martin.

On a personal level, the stakes for Mr Martin are very high. Most commentators and many within his own party believe he has a final chance to become Taoiseach.

In modern politics, very few party leaders are afforded three election cycles out of office – even if the 2011 campaign was a write-off before it began.

So Mr Martin must bide his time in the hope that events will hand him the perfect moment to pull the plug on Fine Gael. It had three strikes last year but is still in.

When Enda Kenny made up stories about Katherine Zappone’s meetings with Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe, Mr Martin held fire. When former attorney general Máire Whelan was appointed to the Court of Appeal, Fianna Fáil kicked up a stink but ultimately let it happen. And when Frances Fitzgerald resigned before Christmas, it decided not to go after Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan, for fear canvassers would find themselves competing with carol singers.

“Those three occasions strained the relationship. There’s no point in pretending otherwise,” Mr Martin told the Irish Independent. He said the meetings he had with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar during the Fitzgerald crisis “did help clear the air”.

“There needs to be a mechanism to nip something like that in the bud much earlier in terms of the political antenna being sharper, particularly on the Government side. This is a mutual process,” he said.

Having spurned political opportunism on three occasions, Mr Martin will struggle to march his troops to the top of the hill again without going over the other side.

But failing another controversy, he is likely to turn to the issues grabbing public attention: housing and health.

If an election is to be called by the main Opposition party, then housing would seem the obvious reason for it.

The public has long factored in the idea that our health system doesn’t work. Thankfully that doesn’t affect the majority of people day to day.

But for those paying extortionate rent or trying to buy a home in which to raise a family, the housing crisis is very real.

Mr Martin’s TDs will also have one eye on the next budget, which – if the economy stays on track – will involve a €1bn tax giveaway and a €2bn increase in spending.

Could they even trust that Leo Varadkar wouldn’t cut and run to the voters after that bonanza?

Just one problem persists for Mr Martin and that’s the gap in the opinion polls.

The three most recent polls have given his rival a decent, albeit surmountable lead.

The Fianna Fáil leader insists he doesn’t watch polls – but no doubt he monitors trends.

Interesting times lie ahead.