Fianna Fáil will have to rediscover killer instinct to win next election
WHAT has happened to Fianna Fáil? Love or loathe the party (and there was rarely much room for middle ground), there was never any doubting what it was about – winning elections.
But the current frontbench – leader Micheál Martin aside – currently seems to be sleepwalking towards the next general election, holding the door open for Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney et al to barrel through.
It’s not like the competition is that tough (maybe that is the problem). This column has argued that, with some notable exceptions, this may be the most callow and least impressive Cabinet in living memory.
Yet despite the glaring weak points in the current Government, Fianna Fáil frontbenchers have barely fired a shot in anger. They seem content to stand back and let Fine Gael set the agenda.
That’s not the Fianna Fáil way. We are talking about a party that was the most fearsome, the most successful, the most awesome electoral machine in European politics. It left nice, polite, silverspooned Fine Gael seemingly forever on the hind tit.
There was a brief period in the early 1980s when Fine Gael caught up and even bettered Fianna Fáil when it came to electoral smarts. But, that aside, from 1932 to 2011 it was barely a contest. The Soldiers of Destiny knew how to win elections and stay in power.
And whenever that natural order was in doubt, Fianna Fáil did what it had to do to make sure normal service was resumed. Up against the government of ‘all the talents’ in 1977, it blew the National Coalition away with a giveaway election manifesto and US-style razzmatazz. It wasn’t good economics, but politically it was dynamite.
The 1997 general election is remembered for Bertie Ahern’s brilliant campaign, but the ground work was done well in advance. In terms of policies, Fianna Fáil completely out-thought Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left.
And it also ruthlessly targeted potential weak links in the Rainbow Coalition. Remember John O’Donoghue’s relentless attacks on then-justice minister Nora Owen. There was no let-up. It was hard to watch at times and many in Fine Gael felt it was unfair, but it wasn’t. It wasn’t personal. It was just business – the business of winning elections.
Where is that implacable and pitiless approach today? The age profile of the current frontbench is not dissimilar to Bertie Ahern’s between 1994 and 1997, but the difference in terms of the hunger for the fray is striking.
The likes of O’Donoghue, Noel Dempsey, Charlie McCreevy, Dermot Ahern and Micheál Martin were uncompromising in their approach. They were hugely ambitious. They wanted to be ministers and that hunger was a huge factor in tipping a very tight election in their favour.
When Bertie Ahern was selecting his cabinet after the election, he was initially reluctant to appoint O’Donoghue to justice, concerned that the Kerryman’s uncompromising approach while opposition spokesman had created too many hostages to fortune.
Who could you say that about on the current Fianna Fáil frontbench? There’s plenty of ability, but where’s the drive and the work ethic? Where’s the hounding of ‘underperforming’ ministers?
Health and housing are two obvious areas for attack. It isn’t Eoghan Murphy’s fault that the Government has consistently failed to meet its targets in relation to homelessness and housing. As countries all across the globe have found, there’s no easy solutions here. But that doesn’t mean the Housing Minister shouldn’t be under the hammer every day from Barry Cowen.
The same goes for Simon Harris in health. Billy Kelleher, Fianna Fáil’s health spokesman, should be relentless in highlighting the lack of progress on waiting lists and the problems in emergency departments.
Simon Coveney’s foot has been stuck in his mouth when it comes to Northern Ireland. It’s a tricky one for the main opposition party because Coveney and Varadkar have been stealing its green clothes, but Darragh O’Brien should be making hay at the needless damage done to relations with the DUP and the British government.
Then there’s Fine Gael’s handling of the Justice Department. It has been all over the place, yet Fianna Fáil has largely let it off the hook.
Why? Some of the current FF frontbench seem just too reasonable and measured in their approach. While that can be commendable, even desirable, sometimes in opposition you just have to go for the jugular.
BUT that doesn’t explain all of the current impression of lethargy and torpor that hangs over the shadow cabinet. Did the last general election, when Fianna Fáil roared back (relative to the 2011 wipeout), outmuscling Sinn Féin and almost usurping Fine Gael, breed a sense of complacency? A belief that once again FF’s superiority at the business of politics was once again manifesting itself and that the roles with FG would surely swap after the next general election?
If so, the frontbench would need to snap out of it sharpish. Varadkar, with his mastery of PR and skill for communication, is a very different beast to Enda Kenny. The strength of Micheál Martin’s performance relative to a dire showing from Kenny, was a huge factor in the last election. The current Taoiseach will be a much tougher prospect for Martin, who needs some support from his officers.
There have been grumblings throughout Martin’s tenure of an overly-centralised approach, with the leader and a small number of advisors running the show to the exclusion of others. There may be truth to it, but who on the front bench – apart perhaps from Michael McGrath – has really put down a marker over the past two years?
Right now, Fine Gael’s communications strategy – in both social and traditional media – is ahead of Fianna Fáil, even allowing for the obvious advantages of being in Government. The FF frontbench has to take responsibility for that and step up to the plate.
Time is running out for them to do so. An election looks inevitable within the next 14 months – Martin’s comments on the ‘confidence and supply’ agreement reported in this newspaper today only strengthen that belief.
Right now, the momentum is with Fine Gael. That can change, but only if Fianna Fáil’s main players make it happen – not just Martin. There is talent there and we can assume they want to be ministers in the next government.
The question is though: just how badly, and what are they going to do to make it happen? The answers may just dictate the outcome of the next election.