With so many questions left unanswered, we should treat Garda figures with caution

THE only way to accurately measure if crime is rising or falling is through statistics – but not just any old statistics. Statistics must be accurate, reflect the reality of what’s happening on the ground and – given they help assess whether taxpayers’ money is being properly spent and if gardaí are doing their job – confirmed by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

That is not to say these latest Garda figures on burglary are wrong, or indeed scribbled on the back of an envelope. But can they be trusted? On the basis of past experience, the answer has to be no.

It is the only source of official statistics – but the CSO has not published crime figures since March last year due to a series of problems with how traffic and homicide offences were classified. This followed problems in recent years where ordinary crime was under-reported on the Garda Pulse system, and detection rates exaggerated.

Until the CSO resumes publishing figures later this year, we should rightly treat Garda statistics with caution.

Besides, the statistics produced on burglary yesterday don’t really tell us anything. They suggest burglaries fell nationally by

23pc during November and December under Operation Thor, but we are not given any additional information. In which stations did they fall, or rise? How many burglaries were solved and arrests made? Can we say with any certainty that all burglaries were reported?

Gardaí also say that between January and April last year, the number of burglaries fell, before rising from April and peaking in October. How does this pattern compare with 2016 or

2015? Why did they increase and by how much?

What about the actions of householders: did neighbours scare off potential burglars? Maybe people installed alarms? Maybe some burglars had such a successful 2017 up to October they took a break? Maybe they were arrested under Operation Thor?

It’s not to say these figures are wrong, or the actions of gardaí should not be applauded.

The Garda figures show between 2013 and 2015 an average of 2,172 burglary incidents occurred each month, which happily fell to

1,496 a month in 2016.

But they rose to 1,863 in October 2017, before falling to 1,742 in November and

1,424 in December. It is this final drop that gardaí chose to focus on with much fanfare in yesterday’s press release. If it can be proved Garda actions under Operation Thor led to the fall, kudos to gardaí. However, it skirts around the issue that burglary had been rising for much of 2017 – and we are still merely returning back to similar levels as seen in 2016.

It is hard to see there has been any real breakthrough – and the public will need more than a few selected percentages to have full faith.