Shane Coleman: Mary Lou will struggle if Adams looms large
SINN Féin politicians tend not to show enthusiasm for garrison games. But before Mary Lou McDonald formally succeeds Gerry Adams, it might be no harm for her to pick up a copy of the autobiography of former Irish international Frank O’Farrell.
If the name doesn’t ring a bell, he is the Corkman handed the poisoned chalice of managing Manchester United in 1971 after the all-powerful Matt Busby finally ‘retired’.
The book ‘All Change at Old Trafford’ tells of how O’Farrell’s job was made impossible by Busby’s ongoing presence at the club.
Arriving at Old Trafford to take the helm, he even discovered Busby remained in situ in the office marked ‘Manager’. Though O’Farrell insisted on taking the office, Busby didn’t go far, always seeming to be “somewhere the players could find him”.
O’Farrell said he felt Busby’s presence everywhere at United. Everything he did was viewed through the prism of the Scot. Denied the opportunity to stamp his authority, O’Farrell was gone as manager within 18 months.
While McDonald’s tenure will undoubtedly prove longer, the parallels and potential lesson are undeniable. Adams may be standing down as Sinn Féin president, but – like Busby in 1971 – he hasn’t gone away, you know.
McDonald is a fine politician: razor sharp, highly intelligent and an excellent media/Dáil performer. But the challenge of taking over from the party’s father figure, someone who personified Sinn Féin for the past four decades, is enormous.
Not since Charlie Haughey became leader of Fianna Fáil in 1979 has there been such a question mark over the authority of a new party leader. Due to the split in Fianna Fáil, the man Haughey defeated in the leadership race – George Colley – was initially able to demand a veto on certain cabinet appointments.
The circumstances in Sinn Féin today are very different. But, as long as Adams looms large in the background, however unfairly, there will inevitably be question marks over who is calling the shots.
It’s no reflection on McDonald. But one can’t ignore the difficulties all organisations encounter moving on from an omnipotent leader.
The particular organisational structure of Sinn Féin, a legacy of the unique circumstances of the military campaign, only magnifies that. Party figures deny it, but the perception remains that Sinn Féin is really run from West Belfast. And that, whether or not the army council still exists, a small number of key figures – Adams pre-eminent among them – make all the important calls. How will that work now the leader is from the Republic and has no links to the Troubles?
McDonald is no shrinking violet and is well able to stand her ground. But there is a legitimate question mark over whether she is facing an impossible task.
Is Sinn Féin finally ready for the kind of cultural change involved? More importantly, are the boys (or, more accurately, ‘old men’) from West Belfast ready for it?
It’s less of a problem in Leinster House where Sinn Féin TDs could barely disguise their impatience for Adams to move aside. His authority remained unquestioned, but privately many of them knew he was an electoral liability in the Republic.
However, a Dublin-based leader raises the risk of divisions emerging between the northern and southern wings of the organisation. It’s stretching things to talk of a potential split. But inevitably tensions will emerge.
Adams’ unquestioned and near transcendent status – a result of decades of war and political struggle – kept a lid on such strains. Any new leader would inevitably find it difficult to replicate that.
Particularly when the new leader is effectively first amongst equals. The dominant Adams and Martin McGuinness axis is no longer in situ.
McDonald will be president but Michelle O’Neill, Pearse Doherty, Conor Murphy and even Eoin O Broin – not to mention the less well known ‘strategists’ operating behind the scenes in Belfast and Dublin – will inevitably be looking to have their say on the direction of the party. They all acted in the interests of the party in leaving McDonald with a clear accession path, but that may not always be the case.
If the party struggles in the polls, or has a poor general election, McDonald won’t have the immunity from internal criticism ‘great leader Gerry’ enjoyed, with his near-divine status. In that context, the absence of a leadership contest could prove a weakness for McDonald in time.
THE on-going shadow of Adams is not the only test McDonald faces. As with Manchester United when Busby stepped aside, there is a nagging sense Sinn Féin has peaked, at least south of the Border. A feeling the party missed a never-to-berepeated chance to bury Fianna Fáil in 2016.
Recalling her completely subduing Leo Varadkar in one radio debate in that campaign, one wonders if things might have been different if it was McDonald – and not the out-of-touch Adams – facing off against Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin.
We’ll never know. But the big worry for McDonald is that her elevation has come too late – that the Old Firm of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are well on the way to re-establishing their supremacy. There is a real possibility the next election could develop as a straight fight between the two big beasts, with everyone else trampled upon.
Given the strength of the economic recovery, McDonald also has to decide where to position Sinn Féin. Do they retain their leftist, protest rhetoric – and risk being marginalised – or move with the voter towards the centre.
It’s there, one imagines, the less ideologically inclined new leader feels more comfortable. But it would be a hard sell to the Belfast crew, where the old revolutionary Marxist vestiges still linger on.
And yet it would be unwise to write off McDonald’s chances of making a go of things. The nationalist vote in the North is sewn up for the foreseeable future, despite the stalemate on restoring the Executive. And in the Republic, it has to help the party that it will have a leader who actually gets the country and has no association with the IRA.
Voters seem to like McDonald. An early bounce in the polls is probable and could help smooth the transition process.
She is also blessed by the ongoing weakness of Labour, which means Sinn Féin’s status as the third party seems secure. Holding its current Dáil numbers is a realistic goal.
Beyond that, though, McDonald has her work cut out and there must be real doubts about whether the party’s legendary cohesion and unity in public can continue postAdams. ‘All Change’ at Sinn Féin? We shall see.
O’Farrell felt Busby’s presence everywhere at Manchester United. Everything he did was viewed through the prism of the Scot. He was gone in 18 months