Mary Lou has to scrap Sinn Féin’s joke economics if party is to become a true contender
‘THE Gods visit the sins of the father upon the children.’
This is the stark political reality for Mary Lou McDonald today as she takes up the position of president of Sinn Féin. Unlike God, who holds out some prospect of pardon, we mere mortals often simply refuse to forgive and forget.
Instead, we remain slavishly predisposed toward heaping historical wrongs upon the shoulders of the next generation.
Articulate, capable, intelligent and impressive as Mary Lou McDonald is, she commences her presidential journey with a heavy history and a complicated, clandestine culture in her shadow.
As the first female president of Sinn Féin, McDonald’s primary and principal challenge will be to hold on to the ‘hard men’ core vote while she simultaneously attempts to grow the party’s base. It is no simple endeavour. The significance of the change in Sinn Féin’s leadership now for McDonald is acute, because it places a demanding burden of expectation upon her shoulders.
She is expected to progress Sinn Féin from its position as player in the peace process to power broker and potential coalition partner in future governments.
In the short-term, her stewardship will be evaluated on her success at positioning Sinn Féin as a viable option for Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil after the next general election. That is the simple bit. Longer term plans are more complex, because terms of future coalitions must work for the party north and south of the Border.
This all paints a picture of the real politic of the situation before Sinn Féin’s urbane new leader, but it is only one of many conundrums in her kaleidoscope of nuisances.
Succession celebrations might be somewhat dulled by the biting realisation that the legacy of her party forefathers comes complete with millstones of epic proportions. We were recently reminded of one such idiosyncratic feature particular to Sinn Féin.
A highly repressive disciplinary regime foisted upon its members proved another lightning rod for attracting attention to the party’s unorthodox practices and the unconventional nature of its political DNA.
The novelty of her newness may inject a new dynamic into an old story for younger voters, but it will not be enough to change the minds of the political establishment.
In order to truly and successfully propel the party into power, McDonald will have to firstly forego the party’s inherent predisposition toward introspection.
She must embrace and project a more outward focus to policy, which means injecting an international dimension.
It also will mean developing international relationships and creating a coherent foreign policy that extends beyond Irish-American fund-raising dinners.
What is required is a transnational strategy that is not exclusively limited to assisting the peace process.
Despite the ease with which Sinn Féin has managed to assuage American politicians, it has enjoyed no such relations with Europe and has always worn its anti-European stance as a badge of honour.
Brexit means its once sworn enemies of the European establishment must be embraced as vital allies to advance its political project north and south of the Border. It will no longer have the luxury of having one foot in Europe and the other outside of it.
In politics, momentum is a must for any leadership – if you are not moving forward, you are destined to be dragged backwards. Injecting some impetus into Sinn Féin is vital for Mary Lou if she is to assert control early in her tenure.
Restarting the devolved administration in Northern Ireland is crucial for both McDonald and DUP leader Arlene Foster.
As the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement approaches, neither leadership will be enhanced by presiding over a defunct political agreement.
Foster’s base authority is exercised by her colleagues at Westminster with direct access to Downing Street. Sinn Féin enjoys no such leverage.
In the context of Brexit, Sinn Féin’s allies are the Irish Government and the European establishment. In order to progress its own agenda, it needs to be moving towards power in Europe and in Ireland.
Developing more cogent and credible positions relating to public finances may help it to carve out some credibility with European sceptics. It would also help the party significantly in its ambitions for government here too.
If Fine Gael expands its seat lead over Fianna Fáil in the next general election, then coalition with Sinn Féin could be the most attractive option for returning to government.
Current arithmetic dictates there are really only three parties in contention for government. Neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael will wish to repeat this current marriage of inconvenience again. It is not hard to imagine Sinn Féin becoming kingmaker in the next Dáil.
Sinn Féin will only begin to become palatable to either party post-election if it develops a much more rational position on our public finances.
It is within this realm that Mary Lou might enjoy the greatest advantage over her predecessor and finally break free from the shackles of history and come into her own.
Gerry Adams was not good at sums. Like, he was really bad. So bad in fact that when left to his own devices, fiscal space orbited into outer space.
Although at times entertaining, under his leadership the party’s credibility on economic matters was toecurling and embarrassing.
As a result, in public debates and leadership set pieces, Sinn Féin remained on the margins of any real discussion and deliberation on economic issues.
If Mary Lou can count as well as she can talk, then maybe all that is about to change. Sinn Féin’s crazy, impractical unworkable tax and spend plans simply must be replaced by credible financial policies if it is ever to be considered as a potential political partner in any government.
As party leader, Mary Lou McDonald faces myriad problems, but there are also many possibilities. Transformative brand management has not been beyond the party in the past and do not discount another manifestation in the near future.
It is hard to believe but some voters in this next election will not even remember that Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness were once international pariahs banned from radio and television. They’ll only remember them as crucial players on the world stage.
Over time, Adams and McGuinness successfully promoted themselves as avuncular figures, full of the self-confidence of calm middle age. Their pasts were overlooked for the greater good of the peace process by those within the Anglo-Irish and American political establishments.
If Mary Lou McDonald possesses even half the dexterity of her predecessors for reinvention, she could well position Sinn Féin as kingmaker in the next Dáil, securing lofty heights of power to which the hard men could never really aspire.
Bill Clinton once famously said “it’s the economy, stupid”.
Sinn Féin might consider the words of the politician who propelled their cause in the US by bringing it in from diplomatic Siberia. For it is Sinn Féin’s economic policies and its ability to have a more outward focus that will ultimately determine Mary Lou McDonald’s success or failure, not the legacy of violence that she inherits.
Hello, Mary Lou, goodbye past.