The Ryan Review

I WAS in a taxi the other day, and as occasionally happens, was asked by the driver what I thought the property market was like these days, and whether it was worth investing in. He already had two apartments, and was considering taking a punt on a third, bemoaning the price increases and regulations, but justifying the rental income and stock shortage. He reckoned it was now or never, but confessed to be also fascinated about cryptocurrencies — he knew someone who had cashed in Bitcoin at the ‘right time’. What did I think?

In late 1928 Joe Kennedy (Wall St mogul and father of John F) stopped on his way to work to have his shoes shined on a street stoop. The boy wielding the cloth and brushes started discussing stocks with him, offering him tips on what to put his money in. There and then Kennedy decided to sell up everything in his stock portfolio, reasoning “You know it’s time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips; the bull market is over.”

He was one of the few who avoided the Great Depression when the stock market crashed the following year. I don’t know where the property market is going, any more than I know about cryptocurrencies, and anyone who tells you they do, doesn’t either. What I do know, is that we have inexorably rising prices, both capital and rent, and an unsustainable market. We also now, have cheap, easy credit.

And I also know that every bubble needs a shoeshine boy.