Don’t let storms and beasts distract us from global warming
AS THE ‘Beast from the East’ approaches, bringing with it a frigid blast of air, the last thing on most people’s minds is climate change. And yet, the fingerprints of a warming planet can be detected in the Arctic, where record warm temperatures over recent days have shocked scientists.
As Prof Peter Thorne, a leading climate scientist from NUI Maynooth, remarked: “Sadly for us, what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”
He argues that there could be a link between events like Storm Emma and climate change, but that it’s impossible to be definitive.
You don’t need to be a climate scientist to sense that something is shifting. Supposedly “once in a 100 years” extreme flooding and devastation struck the northwest last August, followed by the record-breaking Storm Ophelia in October. These events followed stormy winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, both of which resulted in dangerous flooding.
But scientists are a cautious lot. They seldom link one-off events to climate change. Instead, they prefer to say that climate change loads the dice, making extremes more likely. This has been described as “climate weirding” – in a warming world, we need to expect the unexpected.
What does this tell us about our current visitor from the east? The simple answer is that we can’t make a definitive link between Storm Emma and climate change, but it doesn’t matter because the big picture is clear. Concentrations of heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere are higher now than at any time over the past 800,000 years, and they continued to increase in 2017. To put this in context, homo sapiens have only been around for 200,000 years, while cities only appeared 10,000 years ago at most.
Humanity is therefore in the midst of an unprecedented experiment. Planet Earth is the test tube, and we, its inhabitants, are the subjects. The question is what happens to human civilisation under conditions of rapid and unprecedented warming? How resilient can society be?
Extreme weather is one danger, but sea level rise may be Ireland’s Achilles’ heel. A recent study by Newcastle University found that Cork, Derry, and Waterford were uniquely vulnerable in the EU, while Dublin was among the capital cities most at risk.
There is little scientific doubt that severe, pervasive and irreversible changes to the Earth’s climate are on the way, but it is also clear that radical action to reduce emissions can stave off the most nightmarish futures.
The question is what each of us can do in the face of such an overwhelming challenge? The answer is that we need to work top-down, demanding more from Government and politicians, but also from ourselves.
From a Government perspective, there is good news. Ireland has been a climate laggard for a long time, but the recently published National Development Plan is a new departure. Under the stewardship of the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and the minister responsible for climate change, Denis Naughten, the new plan envisages spending some €21.8bn on climate change over the next decade. It includes a hugely promising list of measures to drive low-carbon growth and to build resilience to flooding. The problem is we’ve seen plenty of ambitious plans before, but they’ve gathered dust. Hopefully this time it’s different.
One of the promising measures that jumped out was a commitment to more than double renewable electricity capacity by 2030.
In a report published by the Institute of International and European Affairs yesterday, we explored how this high-level of ambition might be delivered on the ground. It is important that local communities and citizens can see the benefits of low-carbon transition on the ground.
This can be achieved by finding ways to partner with renewable project developers, by participating in local energy projects, or by
‘The question is what each of us can do in the face of such an overwhelming challenge? The answer is that we need to work top-down, demanding more from Government and politicians, but also from ourselves’
investing in energy efficiency or renewable energy in the home.
Government recently launched a consultation with radical proposals to achieve these objectives. But there is limited awareness in many local communities about the opportunities coming their way later this year.
At the launch of our report, many stakeholders identified the importance of supporting communities through education, skills development, and access to finance, if we are to succeed in making the energy transition more democratic.
If you are leader in your local community and you want to do something about climate change, the message is that help from Government may finally be on the way. Now is a good time to do your homework. There are local energy agencies in some regions, while the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is also a good source of information.
Extreme weather events remind us all that climate change is here and now.
A new focus from Government that puts citizens and communities at the heart of low carbon transition is essential.