Brexit offers a chance for SF to damage DUP
SINN Féin is missing a golden opportunity to pull off the political coup of a lifetime; transform the party’s fortunes in the south and nail the lie – as it would see it – it’s still Gerry Adams and the lads in the Felons’ Club in west Belfast really calling the shots.
It’s difficult to overstate what’s on offer for the party with the upcoming vote in the House of Commons, moved by Tory rebels with the goal of mandating the British government to negotiate a customs union with the EU.
With the arithmetic in Westminster finely poised, the six Sinn Féin votes could tip the balance in favour of Tory rebels and Labour to deliver the bloodiest of noses to, not just Theresa May and the hard Brexiteers in her party, the increasingly self-satisfied DUP.
Given the primacy of parliament in the British system, a vote to maintain a customs union with the EU would effectively be binding on May’s government. It couldn’t simply ignore it.
It’s also not unthinkable to imagine a chain of events that could result in the British government collapsing – particularly if May plays a game of bluff and turns this into a ‘confidence’ vote.
In such a scenario, Jeremy Corbyn would likely become prime minister, bringing an immediate end to fears of a hard Border in Ireland.
In short, Sinn Féin would have delivered more in real terms in one day towards a United Ireland than either it or the IRA managed in the past half-a-century.
The party has an opportunity to literally change the course of history and grab an extraordinary electoral coup from the jaws of Brexit disaster for Ireland.
None of this is to understate how difficult the idea of ending, however briefly, the party’s century-long abstentionist policy in Westminster is. Many commentators underestimate just how massive a step this would be Sinn Féin.
This goes way beyond what split the party back in the mid-1980s when Sinn Féin, led by Adams and Martin McGuinness, voted to end its policy of not taking seats in the Dáil.
We are talking about the House of Commons, where ‘her majesty’s government’ and ‘her majesty’s opposition’ sit. Far more than previous major compromises – on the status of the North or policing – made in hard negotiations behind closed doors, this would be entirely public, entirely visible. You don’t need to be a rabid Provo to find the idea of Sinn Féin MPs in the chamber of the House of Commons a little unsettling.
It certainly falls into ‘sleeping with the enemy’ category. Sinn Féin also has to be conscious of how this would play with its voters in west Belfast, the Bogside, south Armagh, west Tyrone and elsewhere. It fought the last general election in the North on the basis of abstentionism, defeating the likes of the SDLP’s Mark Durkan in the process.
It’s entirely understandable for nationalists to be deeply uncomfortable with the idea of their MPs doing something that could be regarded as recognising the legitimacy of Westminster – even if that Rubicon was largely crossed with the Good Friday Agreement.
There’s also entirely credible worries about whether it would give a boost to dissident Republicans, who would be quick to level the charge of “sell-out” at Sinn Féin.
Nor is there any guarantee the ruse would work – would Tory rebels ultimately baulk at the notion of being in the same lobby as Sinn Féin? Very possibly.
So let no one be under any illusions. This would be a hugely difficult decision for Sinn Féin’s leadership to make – for reasons only they can truly appreciate. But there are also big risks for the party in not taking their seats for this vote. Imagine, for example, if the motion is defeated by fewer than six votes – entirely conceivable as some of the Tory Remainers are likely to come under intense pressure to back their government.
In such a scenario, Sinn Féin will be justifiably hammered by opponents for failing to represent the people of Ireland; for ‘putting ideology before the national interest’; for ignoring the 60pc of voters in the North who voted ‘remain’. It would be the political equivalent of missing an open goal to cost your team an All Ireland.
Sinn Féin figures have previously dismissed the case for taking their seats in Westminster, arguing the terms for Brexit would be decided in Brussels, not London. That no longer holds water.
There’s no question the party has a chance, possible a final chance, to end the threat of a hard Border in Ireland – a raison d’etre one would have thought for Sinn Féin – not to mention potentially unseating a Tory government.
Could that not be sold to the nationalist community in the North? The potential prize is so massive, one would be surprised if it is “not even a topic of discussion within the party”, as a spokesman claimed this week.
The possibility, we know for certain, was discussed in Chequers last week at the UK cabinet gathering to discuss Brexit.
The SF leadership would be stupid not to at least consider it – and they are far from stupid. The word is that ending abstentionism was indeed ‘a topic of discussion’ in Sinn Féin last year when it emerged the DUP had the balance of power. It’s hard to believe it isn’t now again. Were it to happen – and the vote to remain in a customs’ union was successful – it would give a huge boost to Sinn Féin in the south.
Imagine Mary Lou McDonald contesting the general election as leader of the party who saved the country from a return of the hard Border and a hard Brexit. It would play hugely well with elusive middle class voters.
Nor would the political dividend be confined to south of the Border. The moral authority Sinn Féin would garner from such a stance, in contrast to the DUP, would be a game changer also in Northern politics.
Of course, it wouldn’t be easy. But neither was the 1994 ceasefire nor the Belfast or St Andrew’s agreements.
Sinn Féin members already attend Westminster. They lobby in the corridors and have offices there. Aside, from the optics (not to underestimated), is it really so different to temporarily cast their vote in the national (and nationalist) interest?
There is, of course, the far-from insignificant issue of the oath of allegiance MPs must take to the crown before taking their seat. That’s a huge ask for any proud republican.
But over 90 years ago, Éamon de Valera managed to leap that particular fence and in one bound he was politically free – becoming Taoiseach for a combined period of 21 years.
Mary Lou and Sinn Féin have the next few weeks to decide if they are willing to follow suit and reap their own political dividend. It would be a gamble, but surely a gamble worth at least considering?