Leo faces high-wire act with US visit to unpredictable Trump

IRISH and international media will have their “cringeometers” primed and ready to assess the Donald Trump-Leo Varadkar public exchanges in Washington next week.

‘The Donald’ has unique abilities in the “cringe department” which at times reflect more on the person he encounters.

In the coming fortnight Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will be on the world stage representing Ireland in the USA and the EU, at a vital stage in the nation’s affairs.

Key in the USA will be balancing the maintenance of long-standing Ireland-US links with a contrasting message of Irish disagreement with key elements of President Trump’s many unacceptable policy stances.

Already, the Taoiseach has pledged to raise women’s rights and those of gay and transsexual people, but there is also the tricky prospect of a potential visit to Ireland by President Trump. All of that when the pair meet at the White House next Thursday.

Mr Varadkar flies to the States tomorrow night, and is due in Oklahoma on Monday, to meet a representative of the Choctaw Native American tribe. Back in the 1840s this beleaguered group of people gave $170 for Irish Famine relief. A “thank you” would appear long overdue.

After a series of other US engagements he is back in the EU capital on Thursday week for a vital leaders’ summit. It will yet again be all about holding the line on Ireland’s key Brexit issues.

Ten months on, the voters’ assessment appears to be rather good. A slew of opinion polls is very positive – some are rave notices.

But these of themselves carry in-built warnings. History teaches us that political leaders are rarely as good as their high poll ratings – and also rarely as bad as their low ones.

There are always two caveats attaching to opinion polls: first is the margin of error; second is the impact of short-term controversies which recede quickly enough.

Bearing that in mind, the medium-term trend looks good for Fine Gael and Leo Varadkar and less encouraging for Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin. In the February 2016 General Election, Fine Gael’s vote slumped by 10 points to under 26pc. Fianna Fáil had a revival with more than 24pc.

Fine Gael’s woes appeared to continue for a year, but news of Enda Kenny’s departure, and the arrival of Leo Varadkar as leader, changed that. Most polls put Fine Gael at more than 30pc, and some even have it on its 36pc record high in the February 2011 landslide.

By contrast, Fianna Fáil appears stalled in the mid-twenties at a time when it had hoped to drive a real recovery comparable with its glory days. This time last year it appeared to be getting the better end of the confidence and supply deal. Now Fine Gael appears to have the edge.

Leo Varadkar’s own popularity rankings at times look to be soaraway. Last December, after his Government had teetered on the brink in a row over former justice minister Frances Fitzgerald he and Fine Gael defied the odds and returned strong poll ratings.

This was down to deft handling of the Brexit negotiations with the solid endorsement by the EU for Ireland’s vulnerable position. But such EU support may not last, and even if it does, it may not deliver a good outcome for Ireland, as the riven London government continues on a route towards enormous self-harm which threatens this country.

That brings us neatly to the other blindingly obvious reason for Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael’s good ratings: the economy is doing very well indeed. With unemployment below 6pc, the feel-good factor has finally arrived. In fact, by now the ill-starred Fine Gael 2016 election slogan – “Let’s keep the recovery going” – might actually resonate with voters.

Fallout from a bad Brexit could quickly dent the economy. That in turn could take much of the sheen off Leo Varadkar.

The Taoiseach’s visit Stateside is a high-wire act. Middle Ireland gets the reason for his travelling to maintain Ireland’s unique links into the Washington machine. The US-Irish links long pre-date that strange politician, Donald Trump, and should long outlast him.

In the Dáil on Wednesday, the Taoiseach listed some areas of serious disagreement with President Trump. “I do not agree with him on migration, climate change, or trade. I am very much a supporter of free trade…I also believe very strongly in individual freedom, which encompasses women’s rights, and the rights of people who are lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender.”

He was replying to Solidarity TD Paul Murphy, who had issued the dreary standard “don’t visit Trump” mantra.

In a nice aside, the Taoiseach noted that Deputy Murphy and President Trump may have more in common in their reticence about free global trade.

But the Taoiseach also pledged to raise the issues which he cited as points of disagreement with the US president. Last year, a “demob happy” Enda Kenny did raise the issue of immigration and was also treated to cringe-making “new friend” and “great guy” descriptions. Mr Kenny also issued a reciprocal invitation to President Trump to visit Ireland.

It all makes for some fun watching over the latter end of next week. Politicians find a good foreign trip a help to boost the image and dial down national rows. But things can go wrong on these trips too, with lasting fallout on the home front.

The Taoiseach pledged to raise these issues with the US president: migration, trade, climate change, and gay rights