Only perfect Thomond storm can topple Toulon

MUNSTER are where they want to be on their European journey – a record 17 th quarter-final, on home soil, too – but are they equipped with the necessary ingredients to continue towards their desired destination?

This afternoon may not fully reveal the answer to that question but it certainly has the ability to end the debate for another year.

Munster have won 12 of those quarter-finals (eight of nine in Limerick) – and the two most recent against the most decorated European side of them all, Toulouse – but the five-time winners were a fading force even in the first year of that double.

Since beating Northampton here in 2010, Munster have three times failed to reach this stage and they have also succumbed to Ulster; Toulon’s recent tournament history is much more relevant.

Since Toulon first visited here in 2010, the three Heineken Cup stars they now boast upon their breastplates were as illusory as those that may have adorned some of the characters in Mourad Boudjellal’s comic books.

But they have won more away matches than they have lost in European fare since then and they are on the cusp of completing a ninth straight win against Irish opposition.

And yet, they are not the irrepressible force that accumulated an unprecedented hat-trick of European titles; they have lost ten games in the Top 14 already this season.

At one stage, they would have compiled a sequence of eight successive away defeats were it not for a late, late smash-andgrab in the pool stages against a Treviso side who, in previous years, they would have dispatched as roadkill.

Scarlets showed before Christmas that the way to beat Toulon is to move the ball quickly and effectively away from the contact area as often as is practicable.

As Peter O’Mahony averred this week, Munster will not shy away from a collision – indeed a few early warning shots would not only fire up the team but the crowd were they to land a visiting behemoth upon his behind.

But as Ian Keatley also pointed out, there is little point in engaging Toulon physically as if equals because, palpably, they are not.

“You’ve got to pick your fights,” says coach Johann van Graan. “Just in terms of the laws of physics, they’re just bigger than us so you need to find ways to outmanoeuvre them in certain areas. Unfortunately, this is a collision game, you need to win collisions, you need to win body height and body fight against them. You’ve got use your fitness and move them around.”

Munster must be smart.

The Scarlets’ play-book ceded some possession to Toulon but accelerated line-speed defence, incessant tackling and astute breakdown work can frustrate a side seeking to physically dominate.

Toulon turned the ball over 25 times that day at the ruck and the persistent theme of that game was how the French side compounded their frustration by narrowing their attack, hence easing the stresses on Munster’s defence out wide.

Discipline – not always Munster’s strong point this term – will be key.

On the other side of the ball, Munster will then be required to maintain possession themselves, potentially against an unhinged defence, while balancing the need to pin it into areas where they will hope to maximise their obvious scoring potential.

Sounds like a recipe but do Munster have the ingredients?

Sadly for them, their menu has been severely limited by injuries, mostly in the back-line, which may further influence the potentially limiting game-plan they will seek to employ.

The good news is that Irish internationals Simon Zebo and Andrew Conway return, at least, two proven finishers and also players capable of contributing to the kicking game that will more likely than not also be central to Van Graan’s approach.

In the back-row, the absence of Tommy O’Donnell will be keenly felt, ramping up the responsibility on Jack O’Donoghue to deliver on the grandest of stages, alongside Grand Slam winners CJ Stander and Peter O’Mahony, of whom excellence is expected in all facets of the game.

The battle for the gain-line is vested with heightened danger when the back-lines are compared, beginning with the midfield; Munster have had to wait all week for theirs to be confirmed and it is not their firstchoice selection.

Toulon have the luxury of omitting All Black Malakai Fekitoa. In the back three, Toulon can boast the try-scoring machine that is Chris Ashton, who has already breached the Top 14 record with several months of the season still to play.

Munster can match them in the tight but, if they get enough front-foot ball, Toulon have the scoring arsenal to wreak havoc out wide, never mind if they get sufficient set-piece traction in the 22, where their powerful maul and set-piece can also herald danger.

The return of international hooker Guilhem Guirado is also a boon for the visitors; along with the revitalised centre, Mathieu Bastareaud, he was one of the stand-out players in the Six Nations.

Munster will seek not merely to maximise the tangible elements of their game but also the intangibles.

As Zebo will tell Sky Sports viewers today: “When you come to Thomond Park, you are literally playing against 16 men because the crowd represent everything about what Munster are.”

This could be Zebo’s last appearance on the cherished turf for some time and, no more than his team-mates, he will need to produce something close to the perfect performance.

Cool heads and warm hearts are required to give them a chance. It remains to be seen if they are good enough to take it. Verdict: Toulon