Veteran ‘Wings’ can fly highest at Fairyhouse
REGULAR readers will know that I’m very cautious about backing old horses in chases, as they are generally unlikely to have any improving to do near the end of their careers.
Both the handicapper and the bookmakers usually have a handle on how well or otherwise they are likely to run.
In fact, had you laid all 3,249 horses aged 13 or older on the exchanges since 2008, you’d have been successful in 94pc of races with a profit of €4,130 to a €10 stake, albeit with some large liabilities along the way on the outsiders (prices based on Betfair SP).
Occasionally, I’ll make an exception for a horse that’s still performing at a certain level and, interestingly, backing favourites only aged 13 or older during that period produced 31 winners from 78 runners and a profit of €45 to a €10 stake at SP, or €71 to Betfair SP.
WILLING
Priced 25/1 at the time of writing, Bless The Wings is extremely unlikely to go off as favourite for Monday’s Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse (5.0) but he’s exactly the type of horse I’m willing to take a chance on again, despite his age of 13.
The figures show that the last time a horse that old won the Irish National, Samuel Beckett’s Waiting For Godot was getting its premiere on stage (1953), so the stats are certainly against me here.
But having said that, not too many actually attempt it – of the 268 runners in the last ten years, just two have tried, namely Lion Na Bearnai which fell in 2015 at 33/1, and A New Story which was fifth in 2011 at 25/1. So it will be somewhat historic if Bless The
Wings wins on Monday, especially considering his trainer Gordon Elliott has never won this race before.
Nor has Willie Mullins, which is surprising in a way considering how both trainers have dominated the Irish racing scene in the past few years. Between the two stables, they throw plenty of darts and make up over half the field on Monday, 13 of which come from Elliott’s yard.
I backed Bless The Wings in this last year when he came second to Our Duke, and that came one year after he finished in the same spot behind Rogue Angel.
As mentioned, he’s getting on in years and Elliott has considered retirement, but the gelding proved he can still handle a proper test when winning a cross-country Chase at 12/1 at Cheltenham in December.
Unfortunately, he fell in the cross-country race at the Festival, but he’s reported to be unscathed and he may just have one or two big races left in him, if not here, possibly at Aintree.
Once trained by Alan King, he has a lot of miles on the clock and has raced no fewer than 55 times, but he continues to surprise on occasion.
At the prices, he can be taken each-way, although Mullins’ Pairofbrowneyes comes here with very strong claims following a career-best run to win the Leinster National Handicap ChaseatGowranlasttimeout.
Back to today, I’m quite keen on Michael Bell’s Fabricate around 7/4 in the Listed Better Odds With Matchbook Magnolia Stakes (2.35 Kempton).
A handicap winner at the Goodwood Festival in August, he went on to win the Group Three Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor, so that piece of form alone gives him a great chance at a lower level.
Following Windsor, he raced again in Group Three company at Newbury and although fifth of 11 runners, he certainly wasn’t disgraced considering he was carrying a penalty in what turned out to be a very competitive race.
With the three male horses here carrying 9st and the two fillies on 8st 9lbs, this should be more straightforward, and the selection tops the ratings at 112 alongside Michael Stoute’s Autocratic, which is also a Group Three winner.
However, Stoute’s horse struggled at that level in his last three races and this looks a bit more realistic for the moment. In fairness, he didn’t get a clear run when last seen in the Winter Derby at Lingfield so that race is overlooked.
Later on at Chelmsford, consider backing Communique, which was priced 6/4 yesterday evening for the Bet Exacta At Totesport.Com Novice Stakes (6.15). The Mark Johnston colt is related to some useful sorts and looks quite promising based on his two juvenile races to date: he finished second in a maiden, and the same spot in a novice, both last October. He’s one of those Johnston horses that looks likely to improve as a three-yearold and although I concede we don’t have a huge amount to go on here, he sets the standard on what we’ve seen so far.
Each-Way
A SON of Sea The Stars, Night Of
Glory is adaptable and consistent, winning a hurdle race at Fontwell recently, and remains open to further improvement. Andrew Balding’s four-year-old is back on the Flat today for the totepool Queen’s Cup Handicap (3.35 Musselburgh), and should give each-way backers a run for their money around 8/1 off a mark of 92.
A winner of a novice race on the all-weather at Kempton in January, he can handle the expected softer ground and he should be thereabouts.
Another one to watch is Mark Johnston’s Time To Study.
He’s running off 102 and won a minor event at Newbury last time off that rating, although he was a little out of his depth in the Cesarewitch previously. But a handicap win at Doncaster in September off 98 means he’s hard to rule out, and early odds of 5/1 look about right.