‘Prospect of united Ireland could force a British rethink on Brexit,’ says Powell
GOOD Friday Agreement negotiator Jonathan Powell has said some Northern Irish unionists would prefer to live in a united Ireland than leave the EU.
Mr Powell served as chief of staff for former UK prime minister Tony Blair and lead British negotiator on Northern Ireland.
Speaking to the Irish Independent, he said: “There’s an element of truth about a united Ireland saving pro-EU Northern Irish people from Brexit.”
He said anecdotally he had heard such a narrative from unionist friends who were worried about the damaging consequences of British withdrawal from the EU.
“You do hear stories of middle-class unionists in the golf and rugby clubs saying ‘if we’re going to leave the EU, we might as well stay in as a United Ireland’.
“Friends of mine who go to such places tell me they’re hearing this. You’d never have heard that before,” he said.
However, rather than motivating some voters to support a united Ireland, Mr Powell said it may concentrate minds on reversing Brexit.
Mr Powell said talk of a united Ireland as a result of Brexit “might change people’s attitudes to Brexit... because it’s not what they want”.
Either way, he sees Brexit as the biggest threat to political stability and the Good Friday Agreement.
In the referendum, 56pc of Northern Ireland voters opted to remain in the EU.
“The percentage of people in Northern Ireland who voted to stay in the EU is more than the Catholic population,” said Mr Powell, adding that it “figures” there would be some unionists prioritising EU membership.
But he pointed out that the numbers are so low it is unlikely to trigger a Border poll as prescribed under the Good Friday Agreement, which was signed 20 years ago tomorrow.
It says a Border poll can only be enacted if it “appears” to the Northern Ireland secretary of state that a majority would express a wish that Northern Ireland “cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a United Ireland”.
Mr Powell said hardline Brexiteers such as Tory MP Jacob Rhys Mogg, foreign secretary Boris Johnson and environment secretary Michael Gove have “discovered very late in the day” that the Brexit they aspire to is impossible because of the agreement.
“It’s notable that people who’ve never had much interest in Northern Ireland are suddenly experts on the subject and saying that it’s run out of time and is no longer required,” said Mr Powell.
But he added that “there’s no way the British government can get rid of the Good Friday Agreement” as it is a legally binding treaty registered with the United Nations Security Council.
Even trying to renege on it would be seen as a disaster for Britain’s international reputation at a time when it hopes to negotiate global trade agreements.
It wouldn’t be a sensible thing when you’re about to sign another treaty with the EU including Ireland over Brexit, said the long-serving British diplomat.
Mr Powell – who has written a book on his experience in the North, ‘Great Hatred, Little Room: Negotiating Peace in Northern Ireland’’ – said the conundrum of protecting free movement across the Border could stop Brexit altogether.
“I do think there’s every chance to stop Brexit, and I think it’s the Northern Irish Border that will tip the whole thing over,” he said.
Mr Powell said Brexiteers believed “the Irish Government will back down and the EU will decide it’s not that important” – but if the EU and Ireland stuck to their guns, there would be no withdrawal agreement and Britain would not be able to leave.”
‘People who never had much interest in Northern Ireland are suddenly experts’