No winners in an early election
AGENERAL election is just months away. It might happen soon after the next Budget in October. Or it might drag into early spring 2019. The difference there is just a matter of weeks.
Predictions on the specific election timing depend upon the person you speak to at Leinster House. In fact, the more pessimistic ones suggest that the next Budget may not be agreed at all and that we will hurtle into a late summer election.
But let’s park such speculation on timing and keep to the main point: we are looking at the final months of this curious hybrid minority coalition, led by Fine Gael and operating by grace of Fianna Fáil.
The first-time-ever arrangement, in place since May 6, 2016, has had its trenchant critics.
It was billed as delivering us “new politics” that would ultimately be more democratic via a strengthened parliament which was no longer just a rubber stamp for Cabinet.
It is true, that after eight decades of an executive-driven style of adversarial politics, we have all had to adjust to this new model. But it has often failed to rise above the small-scale sniping and bickering that have long characterised Dáil exchanges.
It has mainly delivered us slow politics and muscle-bound politics.
Yet on the plus side, the current Government has continued to deliver stable finances and a lower rate of unemployment. There are arguments around the durability of that stability and around the quality of some of the jobs which have transpired.
But the reality is we are in a far better place than we were just six years ago on both those fronts. And there are some encouraging signs that we can build on those gains.
So, let’s ask three key questions about what an early general election might bring us: 1. Will it bring us better government? 2. Will an early election deliver a remedy for the nation’s intractable housing crisis and big problems in health? 3. Who does an election suit – the political parties or the Irish people?
The answer to the first one is that an early election has no guarantee of giving us stronger government capable of more decisive swift action.
On the second one, it is unlikely that more houses would magically arrive under a different government and the history of the health service problems suggests the same.
On the third one, it is clear an early election may suit one or other, or both, of the ‘big parties’ – but not the Irish people. This is recognised by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, whose mutual biggest dread right now is being blamed for causing an early election.
But if it comes asunder soon there will be a big blame game. Some in Fine Gael may fancy their chances of big gains, as polls show the party above 30pc, with Fianna Fáil trailing by anything up to 10 points.
But more seasoned hands in both parties know that leads going into election campaigns cannot be relied upon.
Micheál Martin makes a virtue of proving opinion polls wrong. But his previous success in this cannot be relied upon next time.
The greater danger is that an early general election will deliver another hung Dáil, changing some variables but not delivering a stronger government after months of a hiatus as happened in 2016.
WE last had a general election on February 26, 2016. That means we do not have to have another one until February 2021. Why can we not wait until then? What is the basis of this assumption that we will have another general election within months?
At the core of the confidence and supply agreement that emerged in May 2016 was a Fianna Fáil commitment to allow a Fine Gael-led Government operate for almost three years with a renewal option. Fianna Fáil agreed to abstain in the election of Taoiseach, and the nomination and reshuffling of ministers, and to facilitate budgets consistent with the agreed principles. The opposition party would also vote against or abstain on no-confidence motions and money motions which could bring down the Government.
Fine Gael accepted Fianna Fáil was an opposition party not signed up to a Programme for Government like certain Independents.
Fine Gael also agreed to avoid policy surprises, and both parties agreed big disputes would be referred to the two party leaders. It has been honoured by both sides, in the main.
But the bitter row last November, which cost Frances Fitzgerald her Cabinet seat and brought the country to the brink of an election, has left a bitter legacy.
The confidence and supply agreement might stress Fianna Fáil’s separate identity as a party of opposition. But supporters and members know the Government’s failures on health and housing, along with more militant demands for public-pay restoration, are big issues for them. The reality is that they are seen as part of the government apparatus.
Micheál Martin does not fancy activating the renewal clause. After the Budget, it’s definitely over.
An early election may suit one or other, or both, of the ‘big parties’ – but not the people