Dáil comes back to same topics, but scripts have changed
EASTER is finally over for politicians who return to Leinster House today after a bruising couple of weeks that set the tone for what’s ahead.
Today marks the beginning of a new season of political gamesmanship set around the same topics of abortion, housing, judges, budget talk and Brexit. However, the scripts have changed.
Fianna Fáil is becoming significantly more aggressive on the issues of housing and Brexit, while the return of the Judicial Appointments Bill to the Dáil is likely to get Shane Ross hot under the collar.
“It’s a long way to the middle of July,” bemoaned one minister as they imagined all that could go wrong before the summer.
The mood in Fine Gael is pretty good. It believes Fianna Fáil is confused on the best approach for bringing the country to an election. And while it once seemed likely Leo Varadkar was happy to let the people have their say, ministers are now comfortable in their surroundings and minded to push for an extension to the confidence and supply arrangement. So how will the big topics play out?
ABORTION
Health Minister Simon Harris will spend the next six weeks spearheading the campaign to repeal the Eighth Amendment. That will work well for him if the referendum passes – but if it doesn’t the Opposition won’t waste anytime pointing out that the health system continued to flounder while he travelled the country. On the flip side, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has become an unexpected supporter of legislative change, much to annoyance of many in his party. If the referendum fails, he too will be in the firing line.
HOUSING
Eoghan Murphy, is also going to be in the spotlight. The never-ending rise in homelessness figures looks bad for Fine Gael – but it’s the spiralling cost of renting and buying homes that is really worrying the Government. Middle-class voters will decide the next election. Sinn Féin is considering a motion of no confidence in the minister, while Fianna Fáil has taken to personal attacks on his “elitist” background.
JUDGES
Independent Alliance Minister Shane Ross will demand progress on the Judicial Appointments Bill, which seeks to take the selection of judges out of the political realm.
The issue will be discussed by the Cabinet today but there’s no doubt that Attorney General Séamus Wolfe’s “dog’s dinner” comment on the bill has raised the stakes.
BUDGET
The Budget battle has begun particularly early this year as the survival of the Dáil depends on Fine Gael placating Fianna Fáil. Today, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe’s latest economic update is likely to be positive. Fianna Fáil can literally define the price of power – but will Mr Donohoe pay it or risk an election?
BREXIT
The window for answering the ‘Irish question’ is closing and Tánaiste Simon Coveney knows by the time the Dáil shuts down for the summer he will need to be able to provide firm answers.