Decades of social change have seen absolutist view on abortion cracked apart
THE decisive referendum victory on Friday surprised many. A Yes vote had been expected, but the huge turnout and landslide outcome was stunning.
Standalone abortion votes secured average to low turnouts in the past and there was always a conservative cast to the framing of the questions.
While the result may have surprised, in many ways, it was entirely predictable. Irish society has been transformed in the past three decades.
The decision to vote in favour of a significant liberalisation of abortion law is just another indication of the radical value evolution which has been afoot.
According to the RTÉ/ Universities exit poll taken on Friday, 82pc of voters had made their mind up about how they would vote before the referendum campaign started.
The result didn’t just happen, it was the outcome of slow but persistent social change. Education levels have increased sharply. Economic growth has delivered employment, prosperity and increased living standards. Employment patterns have underpinned massive urbanisation. Collectively, these changes have created a much more open and diverse society.
In 1983, when abortion first exploded onto the political agenda, Ireland was a more rigid and unforgiving place. Many more people lived in small rural communities where social practices were traditional and viewpoints that deviated from conservative cultural values were barely tolerated.
Many issues were taboo and there was a narrow public presentation of complex social mores. Most especially, abortion was presented as a black and white issue. The discussion was absolutist and political sociology research has suggested that defence of the status quo and traditional social order was paramount.
Those who opposed the dominant traditional view were barely tolerated and often portrayed as being anathema to the normal social order.
Social change happens slowly. As the decades progressed, the absolutist position of pro-life campaigners was increasingly challenged. A diverse media environment, more varied life experiences of citizens and events were to crack open the debate.
The 1992 X case introduced discussions about rape and mental health to the abortion debate. By the 2002 referendum, the debate had moved sharply, the liberal vote had grown considerably and more wide-ranging discussions took place. Taboos about mental health were fading and a series of court cases exposed the extremism of the Eighth Amendment. Personal experiences were given much greater prominence in public debates, and the countering influences of the institutional Catholic Church faded from public life.
Undermined by sex abuse scandals, its moral authority and authoritarian vision of social life came unstuck. A more educated and informed Ireland became a more open and tolerant society.
Bitter controversies about contraception and divorce faded from memory and abortion debates were increasingly dominated by the personal testimony of women dealing with diagnoses of fatal foetal abnormality, living with domestic violence and chronic illness, struggling difficult financial circumstances and all trying to deal with crisis pregnancies.
The black and white absolutism of 1983 was blown apart. Abortion was not prevented, it happened in the in UK. The RTÉ/Universities exit poll tells us that for those who changed their minds in the past five years, public disclosure of the Savita Halappanavar case, the Citizens’ Assembly and the Oireachtas Committee were all important points.
And the poll also told us that the personal stories of people told in the media (43pc) and the experiences of people they knew (34pc) were the major factors which influenced their decisionmaking on the abortion question.
Voters are more informed. In fact, the exit poll showed that 87pc of voters felt that they fully understood the issues involved in the debate.
There is considerable evidence that voters have nuanced positions with extensive support for abortion availability in cases of fatal foetal abnormality, threats to the life and health of the mother, and in cases of rape and incest. A small majority also support the 12-week proposal.
Voters are not homogeneous, they vary, but overwhelmingly they have rejected the Eighth Amendment. This opinion and value change has been happening for some time. Indeed, the exit poll carried out after the 2016 General Election included a question on abortion and the same question was asked again on Friday. The differences between the two were negligible. The outcome of the vote on Friday is the settled view of the Irish people on abortion provision and the evidence says that it has been for some years now.