Battle for ownership of Budget 2019 will be a proxy for the general election
SIX weeks ago Willie O’Dea demanded changes to pensions for Community Employment supervisors and assistant supervisors.
The Private Members’ Bill got limited pick-up in the media but would have played very well with a sector of workers who penetrate much of the country.
The demand appears on the list compiled by Fine Gael internal staff, including an economist, over recent weeks with a price tag attached of €188m per annum.
Mr O’Dea is a wily operator who has outflanked Fine Gael in previous budgets with early calls for increases to the old-age pension.
But this time Leo Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe want to be ready for him.
In financial terms, the continuing economic recovery means Budget 2019 should be easier than what has gone before.
But politically it is a landmine that could result in a general election.
Just last week, Mr Varadkar indicated he would like to renegotiate the confidence and supply deal to secure two more years for his minority Government.
However, Micheál Martin has said he will not enter into talks until after a budget has been agreed.
Privately, many Fianna Fáil figures scoff at the idea of extending the deal, suggesting they would become irrelevant if their main purpose in Leinster House was to keep Fine Gael in power.
At the same time, they are looking warily at the polls and wondering how to close the gap on Mr Varadkar ahead of an election.
It’s an unenviable task that faces Mr Martin – but those close to him will cite how they did much better than pollsters predicted in 2016.
Despite making shapes about the ‘success’ of new politics, both sides now seem to agree that an election is coming sooner rather than later.
Even if a budget is passed, the country is likely to go to the polls shortly afterwards.
Based on its dossier, it seems that
Fine Gael believes the economic “choices” will feature heavily in the debate. At a recent private party meeting, Mr Varadkar told TDs it was time to start “calling out” Fianna Fáil. TDs and senators were told that Mr Martin would ultimately either renege on promises or “actually bankrupt the country again”. That language is reflected in the 13-page draft report seen by the Irish Independent. It says Fianna Fáil is “pursuing populist and uncosted economic policies that could bankrupt the country again”.
TD Peter Burke is more than happy with his involvement in the study, saying: “Choices have to be made and Fianna Fáil needs to tell us where their priorities lie.”
Let the budget/ election battle begin.