Budget should not be a weapon of political war

IT HAS been argued that general ignorance, general apathy, and general cussedness determine more general election outcomes than any amount of strategising or party think-tanks ever could. Currently, the focus is turning on to the big set-piece of the Budget. Finding something sustaining yet sufficiently savoury to stimulate an increasingly fastidious voter’s pallet, while maintaining some degree of fiscal responsibility, will be a neat trick.

But before any of this can begin, there is the usual grappling and feinting as parties seek to wrong-foot each other, and send them sprawling before they gain a firm hold on public opinion.

For Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, the priority will be to convey that, while Fianna Fáil has proven itself irredeemably promiscuous with the public finances, it is nonetheless the ideal party to play second fiddle under the entirely dependable baton of Fine Gael, especially with himself as conductor-in-chief.

As we reveal today, Mr Varadkar’s lieutenants are working industriously to produce a shock-and-awe strategy that will outline the profligacy of the Soldiers of Destiny, as the contours for Budget 2019 are set down.

So far, the costs of policies and proposals put on the table by Micheál Martin’s team since the start of the year have been totted up and already amount to a “conservative” €1.5bn, according to Fine Gael.

This all tees things up nicely for Mr Varadkar to target Fianna Fáil as a “populist” party with “roulette wheel economics”. The document runs beyond 13 pages and bears more relationship to a war manual than a basis for agreement and consensus enabling a Budget to be signedoff on.

Fianna Fáil will hardly be behind the door in pointing out the many financial stumbles, over-spends and missed targets that the Government has presided over. While all this is engaging hearts and minds at Leinster House, in the real world, the OECD is sounding a cautionary note to the effect that wage growth is picking up, and a rise in inflation of just over 2pc is also expected next year. Factor in the alarming failure to get any closer to closure on Brexit and the destabilising potential of Mr Trump’s escalating tariff wars, and you get a sense that steady as she goes is the only correct course.

FOR all the huff and puff, there is little real scope for meaningful tax cuts or spending increases in the next Budget without additional revenue-raising measures. The Government is earmarking an additional €2.6bn in spending. But the Department of Finance has admitted that, of this, €1.1bn will be swallowed up by the carry-over costs associated with the previous budget, demographic-related costs and the latest public sector pay deal. As always, due regard must be given to the balance of payments.

Mr Varadkar must balance dampening any expectation of significant tax cuts while at the same time he is anxious to avoid leaving the door open to Mr Martin to offer a far more mouth-watering bill of fare. We can expect the usual barrage of brick-bats. But we need to move away from the politics of posturing and look at records of accomplishment. Especially when in housing and health we have still enormous problems. As Dr Seán Healy points out in these pages today, 800,000 people live in poverty and 1.2 million experience deprivation.

All parties must recognise they are in power to channel their energies into getting the best results for those who entrusted them with office. Generating solutions is ultimately a lot more productive than attempting to dodge responsibility or apportion blame.