Leaving Cert students on the doss would have better grasp of issues than May
THERE was more than a whiff of “crisis averted” from the British media coverage of the latest “big Brexit reveal” from Theresa May.
The headlines led with news that David Davis, the Brexit secretary, would not be quitting her cabinet following an “almighty row”.
Mrs May’s “strong and stable” government had survived to fight (with itself) another day.
Secondary to this was information about the compromise reached on a proposed timeline for the UK to actually cut all regulatory ties with the EU.
Britain will now propose that in order to prevent a physical Border on the island of Ireland, it will come up with a workable plan by December 2021.
Originally the paper to be put forward did not specify a date for “regulatory alignment” to end – but Mr Davis threatened to leave the Government amid fears the UK would end up with a ‘Hotel California’ Brexit, in which it would check out of the EU but never actually leave.
Irish sources suggested it was more like ‘Lanigan’s Ball’, with Britain stepping in and out of the EU.
Commentators across Europe see the proposal as a classic British fudge. Or as one source put it: “Jack [Davis] was sold a handful of beans.”
Last December the Brexiteers were asleep when Mrs May and the EU agreed to a temporary customs arrangement that would keep the UK tightly aligned until the Border question was resolved.
In March, that deal was underpinned by a legal text which said the deal stood “unless and until” something better was negotiated.
It was believed that the UK government would spend the intervening months coming up with the “something better” – but in truth it has achieved little.
All that has really changed is the addition, in a different font, of a non-binding deadline of 2021.
“The UK expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest,” the new document says.
Irish officials placed all the emphasis on “expects”, saying that it’s a meaningless word which is superseded by “unless and until”.
In reality, there are Leaving Cert students who have been on the doss for the past two years and probably would have made a better attempt at the “Irish question” than Theresa May has.
But for now at least Dublin believes it’s the effort that counts.
Her statement yesterday was an acceptance that ‘Max Fac’, using technology to minimise Border checks, is not a realistic option in the short-term.
It was also an admission that we are years away from the point where the UK can set about operating its own trade deals.
“What’s emerged is what we have been saying forever,” said a Government source here who described it as “baby steps”.
Publicly the Irish response was somewhat muted.
The attitude was very much don’t cheerlead and don’t shoot them down.
There’s an acceptance that Mrs May is caught in an almost impossible situation. On one side her government is propped up by the DUP and on the other by the hardcore Brexit pushers like Davis.
We are now less than three weeks away from the major June meeting when EU negotiator Michel Barnier will have to tell prime ministers whether he believes enough progress has been made to move to the next stage.
From an Irish perspective we are a small bit closer to saying “yes”, but at the same
time Mrs May needs to understand that the so-called “backstop” which keeps the status quo intact cannot be guillotined in 2021.
Having failed her exams up to now, she has merely been granted an extension.
It seems likely that we will repeat this scenario several more times in the coming months.
And perhaps before we’re finished, David Davis will realise that if he wants to leave ‘Hotel California’, he’ll need a roadmap to help him todoit.