Leo can’t take re-election for granted

his bum. Unlike Fianna Fáil, he is free of the distraction of hidden agendas.

Fine Gael is in infinitely better electoral shape than a year ago.

But Mr Varadkar’s second year looks more precarious. There are plenty of boobytraps out there in the countdown to a general election that’ll be held no later than May 2019, when European and local elections also occur.

From autumn, all parties will be in campaigning mode. The Budget and Brexit could provide spectacular political pyrotechnics. My universal ‘iron rule’ of political analysis and predictions is always that politics follows economics. Sustained economic growth, increased employment, funding-enhanced public services, and marginal tax cuts inevitably deliver on popularity for a Government . Extra Exchequer receipts will ensure a benign climate to present a platform of prudent competent economic management.

THE known unknown is, of course, Brexit. Mr Varadkar’s grandstanding on no land border restrictions in the build-up to the ‘backstop’ “cast-iron” EU-UK text of December 15 provided him with the biggest opinion poll boost yet. The green jersey narrative was neat: Leo put it up to the Brits and DUP; Europe stood foursquare behind the Irish; Theresa May blinked in order to get to phase two of negotiations; the deal clearly set down the retention of the status quo of full alignment of trade regulations.

But every subsequent step, including the publication of the detailed draft withdrawal agreement, has been laden with ambiguity. The Brits have been backsliding with “nothing is agreed, until everything is agreed”. Even with 100pc EU solidarity, we may have underestimated the Tory party’s capacity for British independence from the EU, despite the potential for untold mutual damage.

The truth is Mr Varadkar oversold the December deal. If there’s no concrete deal on the customs arrangements north-south/east-west at this month’s EU summit, we risk being thrown into the melting pot of 112 different facets of the final shape of the Brexit endgame in October. This week’s insistence by Britain that it will insist on a permanent solution to keep the Border open by October, and included in its withdrawal agreement to ensure that a backstop arrangement does not last beyond the end of 2021, will concentrate hearts and minds.

Ireland’s vital national strategic interests are on the line. The final outcome will be potentially more historically significant than any previous Anglo-Irish Treaty or our accession to the EEC in 1973. The stakes are so high the Taoiseach should sincerely embrace national consensus with Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald.

The chronic shortage in housing won’t be fixed by the next election. The latest construction industry forecasts indicate fewer than 20,000 new units this year – a third of what’s required to prevent rocketing rents and more homelessness.

Health waiting lists of 80,000 patients for surgery, 500,000 for outpatient consultant appointments and a daily average of 227 on emergency department trollies suggest another grim winter for patients.

Those getting up early in the morning are also paying significantly more income tax as there was zero increase in personal tax credits in the last Budget. They’re also commuting longer distances and renting more expensive accommodation.

It has all the ingredients for a ‘Republic of Strife’, rather than ‘Opportunity’.

Mrs May’s general election campaign exposed a fatal charisma deficit in what appeared to be a credible prime minister. Blagging, bluffing, schmoozing, charming, kissing babies and embracing auld wans are part of the gig and you had better embrace it.

So while the Taoiseach has survived and surpassed expectations for the first year, there are sufficient policy and human tests ahead to suggest Mr Varadkar would be unwise to take too much for granted.