After horrors of ‘lost decade’, it’s time for steady approach to win over voters

IN THE early 1980s, a much-loved pirate radio man in Limerick stood a few times for election. One of John ‘The Man’ Frawley’s gimmicks involved a photo of him “standing on my record”, with the picture showing him astride a vinyl disc dating from his showband days.

The anecdote comes to mind as we ask whether the Government could be contemplating taking a more figurative version of this “standing on its record” of managing economic recovery? Can it be that the stance signalled by Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe means he and his colleagues will not try to bribe the voters with their own money at the next general election, which is just months away?

The conventional view of politics is that elections are about “giving”. Veteran politicians always maintained that telling people what you have done for them is worth doing – but voters are predominantly motivated by what you will do for them.

The nearest we have come to such a low-key approach in a modern election came in the spring of 2007 – and it lasted all of four days.

Preparing for the 2007 Fianna Fáil ard fheis, the party strategist Séamus Brennan told journalists on a Tuesday there would be no big giveaways in the forthcoming general election. The following Saturday night, party leader Bertie Ahern took the stage at City West and promised a basket of lavish goodies: a 2pc cut in the standard rate of tax; a halving of PRSI; a scaled increase in the old-age pension towards an eventual €300 per week; hiring 2,000 more gardaí and 4,000 more teachers.

What followed was a third election win for Mr Ahern (right) and Fianna Fáil in late May 2007. And then the horrors which followed an Irish economy so exposed in an international recession. What followed after that was what Michael Noonan called “a lost decade”.

Unveiling his Summer Economic Statement, Mr Donohoe said he would pass on spending €900m in October’s Budget. That is money he would have been allowed to spend under the EU fiscal rules, but he does not want to overheat the economy. Mr Donohoe is left with €800m to allocate on Budget day. He said any further tax or spending

measures would mean more borrowing and further increase the deficit.

Using all the available ‘fiscal space’ would – under the EU fiscal rules – allow for an additional €900m in the Budget, Mr Donohoe noted.

However, this would increase the deficit by an additional 0.3pc of GDP. For Mr Donohoe this would be “the wrong choice for the economy at this stage of the cycle”. In other words he is avoiding the linking of the political and economic cycles at this point.

So as Mr Donohoe signals a rather prudent Budget in his summer statement, it really is time to ask: Why can’t a sensible “steady-as-she-goes” approach be enough to win voters’ confidence?

After the horror of the “lost decade”, do we still need to be bribed by our own money to support a particular party or government?

History suggests we are unlikely to arrive at this conclusion and there is plenty of time for economic sleight of hand between this and polling day.

But there’s a first time for everything.