Kevin Doyle
Hardliners lick their wounds as May carries the day
THERESA May’s ‘Brexit mystery weekend’ at a country mansion in Chequers sounds like the stuff of nightmares.
You get to decamp with your work colleagues, many of whom hate you, and try to solve an impossible puzzle.
It’s extraordinary that two years after the referendum vote it has come to this – but maybe, just maybe, the end is finally in sight.
Sources say Mrs May decided the time had come to take on the Brexit bully boys in her cabinet – and last night’s unanimous cabinet backing for her collective agreement on Brexit indicates that she has carried the day.
No doubt the cabinet Brexiteers will be left licking their wounds and contemplating payback. But the consequences of a heave against Mrs May by Tory hardliners are unclear.
The drama has all the elements of a bad soap opera with a massive viewership right across Europe, particularly in Ireland.
Politicians see Mrs May as the protagonist in this drama. They believe that despite all the madness of the past two years, she is a sensible person.
“I can say having met Theresa May on several occasions, I think she is a very strong, very capable woman and I believe if she decides to lead, she will be successful and the vast majority of people will follow her,” Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said yesterday.
Ahead of the meeting at Chequers there were extraordinary stories of contact details for local taxi companies being left in the mansion’s lobby in case any ministers decided to storm out early.
The implication was that if a minister decided to quit, Mrs May would instantly revoke their Mercs and perks, leaving them stranded 40 miles outside London.
She told them there is a “talented new generation” waiting in the wings if she needs to replace the cast.
In a plot twist, Foreign Secretary and staunch Brexiteer Boris Johnson met with former prime minister David Cameron the night before. The pair were on opposite sides of the Brexit debate – but it is alleged they are united in their belief Mrs May is messing the whole thing up. It was reported afterwards that Mr Cameron thinks the latest proposal from his successor is the “worst of both worlds”.
But Mr Cameron sent out a former aide to deny this, saying “compromise will be necessary”.
It’s all building up to a massive climax. “Time is short,” Mr Varadkar admitted as he watched from Cork. “There have been a lot of meetings. I spoke to Prime Minister May only last week and the Tánaiste has met with his counterparts so we have some indications what it (the plan) may contain and the indications are that it could be a significant step in the right direction,” he said.
For Ireland the only acceptable outcome is a soft Border and the retention of the common travel area.
Mrs May’s collective agreement could deliver that. But it is not clear if it will be acceptable to the EU. If things go badly for her, all bets are off.
By the end of next week we may be no clearer on how the Irish Border will operate after Brexit. But it is likely we’ll know if it really is time to ramp up preparations for a no-deal scenario.