EU warns to prepare for a hard Brexit – despite proposals made by May
THE risk the UK crashing out of the European Union without a deal on Brexit is a real possibility and member states need to be ready for a “worst-case scenario”.
That’s the view among senior figures in Brussels despite the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s publication of the long-awaited White Paper outlining a vision for her country’s future relationship with the EU.
The document includes proposals to keep UK regulations in line with EU single market standards on goods – a measure seen as key to avoiding a hard Border in Ireland.
But the White Paper is being seen in EU circles as a starting point in talks – and a late one at that – coming two years after the Brexit referendum.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last night insisted that a no-deal Brexit was not a likely outcome.
But he said: “We think it’s prudent that every member state plan for the worst.”
A senior Brussels source told the Irish Independent that White Paper proposals for regulatory alignment in relation to goods was “significant” progress, pointing out that this was “essential to allow the free movement of goods on the island of Ireland”.
However, “sticking points” remain and there is concern that the precarious nature of Mrs May’s numbers in the House of Commons could ultimately be what scuppers a deal.
Her Conservative government relies on the support of the DUP and the Tories are divided on her proposals for a deal, with senior figures like Boris Johnson quitting cabinet.
The source said: “The potential for a crash-out by the United Kingdom at the end of March 2019 is a real one.
“It would be very wise for all member states to be ready for the worst-case scenario.”
The EU’s negotiator Michel Barnier is set to sit down with his UK counterparts for renewed talks on Monday.
At the same time the EU is preparing a document to be circulated to member states urging them to increase preparations for a hard Brexit.
RTÉ reported details of the draft internal EU document.
It outlines how the European Commission hopes to reach a deal but also recognises that talks can fail.
The document urges member states to prepare contingencies for a hard Brexit in a range of areas including customs, aviation and financial services.
Speaking to reporters in Westport at a Project Ireland 2040 event, Mr Varadkar said that contingency planning here would be discussed at next week’s Cabinet meeting.
But he said: “What we are not preparing for is a Border between north and south.
“We said categorically that there will not be a hard Border between the north of Ireland and the Republic.
“What we will need to make preparations for is changes in our ports and airports. Even if there isn’t a hard Brexit or a no-deal scenario.”
Mr Varadkar also said he disagreed with US President Donald Trump’s damning appraisal of Mrs May’s Brexit plans.
He said he did not think foreign leaders should “interfere” in the internal politics of another country.
Mr Varadkar said Mrs May’s proposals for a soft Brexit reflected the will of the British people who only narrowly voted to leave the EU. He said Mr Trump’s stated preference was “to break up the EU” which is “not what the British people want”.
The Government insists it has secured a commitment from Britain for a ‘backstop’ solution that would avoid a hard Border in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
This has been disputed by the opposition who argue that there is as yet no legal text on the issue.
Fianna Fáil TD Lisa Chambers claimed there had been a lack of progress on the backstop and accused the Government of a “wait and see approach” to Brexit.
She referred to the internal EU document and fears that a hard Brexit could result in 40,000 job losses.
“Given that the UK will leave the EU in just a few short months, it is essential that the Government increases its own preparedness for Brexit,” she added.